The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Gravity

0.05

med confidence · as of 2026-07-28 · about Character.AI

Reasoned in dependent-economy / user-in-care dollar terms, not gross MAU (platform reports ~45M active users / 75M+ downloads as of Sep-2025, tens of millions MAU into 2026 — NOT used directly). Grounded instead on the subscription economy that actually depends on the platform continuing to exist: c.ai+ ARR ~$50M/yr end of 2025 (~$0.05B), used here as the best available proxy for the attributable dependent economy since a true 'people relying on this for companionship/support' dollar figure isn't published. This likely understates true gravity somewhat (unpaid daily-active users who are emotionally dependent but not paying are a real but unquantifiable component; the wrongful-death/regulatory record suggests real dependency exists beyond the subscriber base) but a users x arbitrary-ARPU multiplication was explicitly avoided per the wave recipe. Held in the $0.01-1B/yr band as instructed.

Sourced figures 3


the working

Basis

Reasoned in dependent-economy / user-in-care dollar terms, not gross MAU (platform reports ~45M active users / 75M+ downloads as of Sep-2025, tens of millions MAU into 2026 — NOT used directly). Grounded instead on the subscription economy that actually depends on the platform continuing to exist: c.ai+ ARR ~$50M/yr end of 2025 (~$0.05B), used here as the best available proxy for the attributable dependent economy since a true 'people relying on this for companionship/support' dollar figure isn't published. This likely understates true gravity somewhat (unpaid daily-active users who are emotionally dependent but not paying are a real but unquantifiable component; the wrongful-death/regulatory record suggests real dependency exists beyond the subscriber base) but a users x arbitrary-ARPU multiplication was explicitly avoided per the wave recipe. Held in the $0.01-1B/yr band as instructed.

Threads 2

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Character.AI.