The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Gravity

no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap API (impact proxy: #1 US iOS app, ~$600B Nvidia 1-day loss Jan-2025). New 2026-07-28 proxy data: Chinese open-weight models (DeepSeek the most-cited example) reportedly command ~30-46% of enterprise LLM token usage and captured share on OpenRouter that shifted from ~30% to ~70% over the past year, at a reported ~1/10th (one source: 57x) the price of US frontier APIs — directionally large third-party economic footprint, but still no total-market-$ baseline sourced well enough to convert this into a defensible $/yr figure without guessing the denominator

low confidence · as of 2026-07-28 · about DeepSeek

Sourced figures 5


the working

Threads 1

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to DeepSeek.