The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Capital · operating

across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources

about Frontier lab

aggregate of member nodes

Aggregate of 7 member claims — each member's sourced figures are below.


the working

Basis

aggregate of member nodes

Member claims 7

This is an aggregate — its evidence is the members' own claims.

  • Anthropic revenue/burn NOT officially disclosed; kestrel anchor >$5B/yr GROSS run-rate, 300k+ …
  • OpenAI ~$8-9B operating/net loss (2025); ~$14B loss estimated 2026; against ~$12B annualized …
  • Mistral AI still no OFFICIAL revenue disclosed by Mistral. A third-party estimate (GetLatka, citing …
  • DeepSeek no revenue disclosed — 'focuses on research, no immediate commercialization plans'; V3 …
  • Alibaba FY2026 revenue ¥1,023,670M (~$142B); operating income collapsed ¥141B->¥50B absorbing AI …
  • SpaceXAI no clean consolidated burn figure — launch/Starlink are cash-generative, the xAI/Colossus …
  • Deepmind DeepMind standalone: £1.33B revenue, £217M operating income, £174M net income (FY2024, …

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A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Frontier lab.