The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Optionality

across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources

about Frontier lab

aggregate of member nodes

Aggregate of 7 member claims — each member's sourced figures are below.

the working

Basis

aggregate of member nodes

Member claims 7

This is an aggregate — its evidence is the members' own claims.

  • Anthropic mixed — founder/board equity, no state; but heavily compute-earmarked and the …
  • OpenAI locked — ~85-90% pre-earmarked (~$1.0-1.4T compute obligations vs ~$180B raised) and …
  • Mistral AI mixed — VC + strategic industrials; EU-sovereignty tailwind, not state control (no formal …
  • DeepSeek constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked and carrying reported PLA / …
  • Alibaba constrained — cash-rich but China state-steered (MofCom weight-export consult, …
  • SpaceXAI free-ish — Musk ~82-85% voting so outside holders cannot bind him; documented …
  • Deepmind constrained — parent-directed, cannot independently raise capital; more research freedom …

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A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Frontier lab.