The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Posture

expanding

high confidence · as of 2026-07-28 · about Moonshot AI

Kimi K3 (2.8T-param MoE, Jul-16-2026) triggered a demand surge strong enough to pause new subscriptions on compute strain and wipe an estimated $3.3T off global chip stocks; valuation run went $20B (May-2026, Meituan-led) -> $30B (Jun/Jul-2026 talk) -> $50B pre-IPO talks (Jul-21-2026) inside ten weeks, with a Hong Kong IPO targeted within six months. Landed in the same week as a US White House accusation of Anthropic-model distillation and export-banned GB300 use routed via Thailand.

Sourced figures 6


the working

Basis

Kimi K3 (2.8T-param MoE, Jul-16-2026) triggered a demand surge strong enough to pause new subscriptions on compute strain and wipe an estimated $3.3T off global chip stocks; valuation run went $20B (May-2026, Meituan-led) -> $30B (Jun/Jul-2026 talk) -> $50B pre-IPO talks (Jul-21-2026) inside ten weeks, with a Hong Kong IPO targeted within six months. Landed in the same week as a US White House accusation of Anthropic-model distillation and export-banned GB300 use routed via Thailand.

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Moonshot AI.