Capital · operating

~$8-9B operating/net loss (2025); ~$14B loss estimated 2026; against ~$12B annualized revenue (2025)

med confidence · as of 2026-07-26 · about OpenAI

Sourced figures 3

Wikipedia — OpenAI $8-9B projected operating loss 2025 (company projection)
2025 med
Wikipedia — OpenAI revenue ~$12B annualized (reported Jul 2025)
2025-07 high
kestrel thread ai-circular-financing-risk ~$14B 2026 loss estimate
2026-07 low

the working

Threads 24

GPT-5.6 resolved
Jalapeño retired
OpenAI IPO developing
Microsoft's Hedge developing
Circular Financing developing
Stargate developing
Frontier Gatekeeping open
Containment Breach retired
Nippon Life v. OpenAI open
Where the Capex Lands open
Compute Spend open
Datacenter Sites open
Nvidia's Order Book open
In-House Silicon open
Camellia open
Big Tech into Health open
OpenAI Health open
Lab IPO Wave open
Nvidia as Lender open
Oracle's Stargate Bet open
The #2 Cashes In open
The Rogue Agent open
AI Psychosis open
The Backlash Prices In open

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to OpenAI.