The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← Tesla

Posture

expanding

high confidence · as of 2026-07-28 · about Tesla

Capex TTM $12.9B is up ~52% vs FY2025's $8.5B, funding the FSD/robotaxi buildout (now live in Austin/Dallas/Houston/Miami + SF Bay safety-driver service) and Energy storage growth (+? YoY) — but the market is pricing this as overreach, not confidence: stock down ~30% YTD, 'worst slump since 2022' after Q2-2026 earnings cited 'massive AI infrastructure capex' as the trigger.

Sourced figures 3


the working

Basis

Capex TTM $12.9B is up ~52% vs FY2025's $8.5B, funding the FSD/robotaxi buildout (now live in Austin/Dallas/Houston/Miami + SF Bay safety-driver service) and Energy storage growth (+? YoY) — but the market is pricing this as overreach, not confidence: stock down ~30% YTD, 'worst slump since 2022' after Q2-2026 earnings cited 'massive AI infrastructure capex' as the trigger.

Threads 1

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Tesla.