Google — The Projection

News · last 7 days

Greg Abel gave his first on-record AI comments since the Q2 13F, and added a leg this thread had not heard from him: Berkshire Hathaway Energy's own upside. 2026-09-02
Google signed the largest enhanced-geothermal power-purchase agreement on record, 396MW with Fervo Energy 2026-09-01
Google signed a 396MW power-purchase agreement with Fervo Energy — the largest enhanced-geothermal PPA ever signed 2026-09-01
Spot HBM is trading at four to five times long-term contract prices. 2026-08-31

Summary

Moody's warned that "unprecedented" AI spending threatens Alphabet's credit quality just as the Magnificent Seven shed $797B in a single day around Google's Q2 report.

Moody's warned that "unprecedented" AI spending threatens Alphabet's, Amazon's, and Meta's credit quality as of July 24.
The Magnificent Seven lost $797B in a single trading day on July 23, around Google's earnings.
Alphabet published its full Q2 earnings and capex detail on July 23, feeding directly into the hyperscaler capex debate.
AI labs pushed back against the proposed Kill Switch Act on July 28, per the frontier-gatekeeping thread that also covers Google.

Whether AI revenue growth catches up to Alphabet's capex guide, and how the Kill Switch Act fight resolves by the White House's August deadline, are open.

Threads

open / developing — being actively tracked right now · resolved — the story concluded · retired — tracking dropped (folded elsewhere or went quiet) · resolved and retired threads stay published as the record, just out of daily sweeps

· Apple × Gemini — developing · last seen 2026-07-30

· Frontier Gatekeeping — open · last seen 2026-09-04

· Hyperscaler Capex — open · last seen 2026-08-25

· Google Capex — developing · last seen 2026-08-17

· Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen 2026-08-30

· Compute Spend — open · last seen 2026-08-29

· In-House Silicon — open · last seen 2026-08-25

· Big Tech into Health — open · last seen 2026-08-28

· Google Health — open · last seen 2026-08-18

· Targets — open · last seen 2026-08-18

· DeepMind Succession — open · last seen 2026-08-29

Items this week

Spot HBM is trading at four to five times long-term contract prices. Korean trade press puts spot HBM3E (36GB) near $2,100 against contract-equivalent pricing of roughly $350–490, and HBM4 (16-layer) spot near $3,500. The attributed causes are HBM4's lower yield consuming more DRAM wafer capacity per unit, and Samsung's already-recorded July commitment of 70% of capacity to long-term agreements starving the spot market. The report adds that Nvidia, Microsoft and Google reportedly cannot get their full contracted volumes. ⚠️ Figures are converted from Korean won — directional, not exact. (Seoul Economic Daily) 2026-08-31
Google signed the largest enhanced-geothermal power-purchase agreement on record, 396MW with Fervo Energy for its Utah Cape Station project, online 2028 with an option to nearly 1GW by 2030 — a third clean-generation category in Google's power book alongside solar and nuclear. Full write-up in the global-capital digest. 2026-09-01
Google signed a 396MW power-purchase agreement with Fervo Energy — the largest enhanced-geothermal PPA ever signed — for output from Fervo's Cape Station project in Utah, online 2028, with an option to expand to nearly 1GW by June 2030. Extends a Google/Fervo relationship dating to a 2021 pilot, and sits alongside Google's existing power book (TotalEnergies/Clearway solar, TVA/Kairos nuclear) as a third clean-generation category rather than the gas pivot Meta and others have taken. Fervo shares jumped nearly 15%. (Bloomberg, GlobeNewswire, primary) 2026-09-01
Greg Abel gave his first on-record AI comments since the Q2 13F, and added a leg this thread had not heard from him: Berkshire Hathaway Energy's own upside. In a CNBC interview from Tokyo, Berkshire's CEO called Alphabet a "significant player" in AI — "We have a lot of visibility from within our companies as to how we're using AI, what type of benefits it's delivering, so that brought incremental interest, and then we saw Google as a significant player" — and put roughly $17bn of Alphabet shares added in the quarter (a different framing from the 13F's own $16.63bn→$37.76bn value read; likely cost basis versus market value, not itemized further in the coverage). Alphabet is now Berkshire's third-largest equity holding. The new part: Abel tied AI directly to BHE's growth, citing Iowa data centers already consuming roughly 8% of the state's regional power load, and said "I've sort of always had the strong view that energy would be the constraint... We do still see it as a significant opportunity." That is a first-party statement connecting this thread to the power-as-constraint story the map runs on Power Buildout — the outside allocator arriving at the map's own thesis independently. (Reuters via Investing.com, CNBC) 2026-09-02