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The Projection

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Operating cash vs capex

Experiment · version 0.1 · updated

An experiment, unfinished on purpose. It may be wrong, broken or unhelpful, and it changes without notice. The version number and update time above tell you whether you are looking at the latest.

For each big spender: the cash its business made from operations, divided by what it spent on capital equipment (property, data centres, chips), over the nine months to September 30, 2026. Above 100% a company paid for its build-out from its own operations. Below 100% it needed money from somewhere else: borrowing, selling stock, its cash pile, or a partner.

Microsoft
151%
operating cash $160.1B against capex $106.0B · 3 reported periods added
Meta
113%
operating cash $96.9B against capex $85.8B · one reported period
Alphabet
96%
operating cash $127.1B against capex $132.0B · one reported period
Amazon
65%
operating cash $113.8B against capex $175.7B · 2 reported periods added
SpaceX/xAI
27%
operating cash $13.1B against capex $48.1B · one reported period

The vertical line marks 100%: operating cash exactly covers capex. Bars stop at 160%.

The four big cloud companies together (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) spent about $499.5B on capital equipment in this period against about $498.0B of operating cash.

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Source: the figures behind these bars are in the frontier AI and capital corpus's export (own funding, revision 2). The hub only divides them.