The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

News · last 7 days

Summary

Satellite imagery confirmed Iranian strikes damaged two AWS data centers in Bahrain, the first published wartime damage assessment of a cloud provider.

Whether Amazon's July 30 earnings reconcile its AGI-team cuts with its capex ambitions is the next test.

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Amazon

What Amazon is up to now

New 09-30 to 10-02: CHIPS OFF THE BALANCE SHEET, POWER AND A COMMUNITY PLEDGE. The FT reported Amazon is exploring moving about $8bn of Nvidia chips into a vehicle funded by outside investors; Amazon and Constellation signed a 20-year, 690MW Calvert Cliffs nuclear power deal (09-30); AWS chief Matt Garman announced 'Built Together', more than $1bn over five years for data-center host communities and an end to government NDAs (10-02); its Strands Labs released an open 2-billion-parameter 'decision model' (10-01). New 09-08: BUYING A SECOND CUSTOM-SILICON PATH. Amazon announced a multi-generational collaboration with Qualcomm on AI data-centre silicon, issuing Qualcomm a warrant for up to 25 million Qualcomm shares (the "$4 billion" of headlines — a warrant value, not cash). The substance for the toll thread is that Amazon already designs Trainium in-house and is now buying an additional external custom path rather than deepening the first, which is a different bet from the 08-27 commitment to two million more Nvidia GPUs and the Vera CPU. Read together, AWS is now running three silicon strategies at once: in-house, merchant, and a partnered custom design.

as of 2026-10-02

Held by Andy Jassy
Posture expanding
Sphere us
Pocket Hyperscalers

Promoted on the structural test, not on feed weight — coverage is still thin (AWS Capex opened quiet).

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med
expanding 2 src →
Capital · available high
~$143B cash+STI (Q1-2026); but total debt ~$210B and FCF is negative 1 src →
Capital · operating high
~$140-149B/yr operating cash flow ($139.5B FY25; $148.5B TTM) 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
~$132-151B/yr capex in-flight (FY25 $131.8B -> TTM $151.0B) — AWS/Trainium datacenters + Rainier for Anthropic 2 src →
Capital · in high
~$717B FY25 net sales (~$743B TTM); AWS ~$137B of it 2 src →
Capital · out high
~$151B/yr out: ~$151B capex + $0 dividends + $0 buybacks (all cash into capex) 1 src →
Optionality high
mixed/constrained — governance free (Bezos single-class, no returns to fund) but operating cash fully pre-committed to ~$150B/yr capex; FCF negative 2 src →
Gravity high
GROSS ~$717B/yr FY25 net sales (~$743B TTM); incl. AWS ~$137B + third-party GMV ~$700B+ vs ~$177B booked cut — undeflated per board policy 2 src →

Holdings

NovaBedrockTrainiumAws

Projects & threads

· Grid & Turbines resource move ↳ Power Buildout — open · last seen 2026-09-29 · 29 entries
◉ Power Buildout resource move ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen 2026-09-29 · 28 entries
· In-House Silicon resource move ↳ Compute Spend — open · last seen 2026-09-30 · 18 entries
◉ Hyperscaler Capex buildout race — open · last seen 2026-09-25 · 17 entries
· Nuclear for AI resource move ↳ Power Buildout — open · last seen 2026-09-25 · 17 entries
· AWS Capex buildout race ↳ Hyperscaler Capex — developing · last seen 2026-10-02 · 15 entries
· Targets exogenous shock — open · last seen 2026-10-01 · 13 entries
◉ Compute Spend resource move ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen 2026-09-27 · 12 entries

Full item history for Amazon →

Vocabulary