The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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corp L1 Chips

ASML

Sphere eu
Pocket Chips

The EUV monopoly — the tightest chokepoint on the board; rentier with an emerging AI-stakes tilt (Mistral 11%).

The axes

Commanded capital
~$60B total assets (€54.7B, Jun-2026); market cap is a separate label
Thrust
~$2B/yr — organic $0.4B (capex €1.4B − dep €1.0B) + Mistral stake $1.5B (Sep-25)
Optionality
free — strong balance sheet, little encumbrance
Gravity
GROSS — sole EUV supplier; no leading-edge chip is made anywhere without its tools (TSMC/Samsung/Intel all dependent)

axes as of 2026-07-27 · gravity shown gross (undeflated)

Projects & threads

No live threads tagged to this actor this week.

Vocabulary