The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Berkshire Hathaway

What Berkshire Hathaway is up to now

New 09-02: Greg Abel's first on-record AI comments since the Q2 13F, and they add a leg this entry has never carried — Berkshire's OWN energy business. In a CNBC interview from Tokyo he called Alphabet a "significant player" in AI ("We have a lot of visibility from within our companies as to how we're using AI... then we saw Google as a significant player") and put roughly $17bn of Alphabet shares added in the quarter, a different framing from the 13F's $16.63bn to $37.76bn value read — likely cost basis versus market value, not itemized further in the coverage. Alphabet is now Berkshire's third-largest holding. THE NEW PART: Abel tied AI directly to Berkshire Hathaway Energy's growth, citing Iowa data centers already consuming roughly 8% of the state's regional power load, and said "I've sort of always had the strong view that energy would be the constraint... We do still see it as a significant opportunity." That makes Berkshire long the same thesis on both sides — as an equity holder and as a regulated utility that earns on rate base built for that load — which is a reason to discount the statement rather than read it as neutral outside confirmation. New 08-16: still quiet since the 08-14 13F filing — no further Berkshire-specific development 08-15 or 08-16. The Q2 2026 13F (filed 08-14, on deadline) confirmed what the 08-08 earnings call described in dollar terms: the Alphabet stake nearly doubled in share count over the quarter (57.83M -> 106.0M combined Class A/C shares, +83%; value $16.63B -> $37.76B), with no other AI-adjacent equity joining it anywhere in the 29-issuer portfolio. Elsewhere the portfolio rebalanced toward housing/away from a handful of consumer names (Constellation Brands exited entirely, Delta grown +44%, a token new D.R. Horton toehold) — real active management under Abel, not passive holding. Burry's 08-09 skepticism ("more framing moves than investment moves") now has its first hard data point to be tested against. Prior read (08-09), for continuity: Michael Burry publicly broke with Berkshire's post-Buffett direction, saying he no longer finds it "an attractive investment going forward." Q2 earnings (08-08) had shown Abel ending a 14-quarter net-selling streak: a $10B Alphabet stake add plus $4.5B+ in buybacks, deploying part of Berkshire's ~$365-400B cash pile.

as of 2026-09-02

Sphere us
Pocket Insurance

The lone FREE deployer among insurers — largest dry powder; gravity ~= capital, not thin.

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture high
expanding 1 src →
Capital · available high
~$381.7B cash + Treasury bills (FY2025) — the largest true dry powder on the board; plus ~$171B insurance float that funds the pile. FREE-deployable, no mandate. 2 src →
Capital · operating high
~$371.4B/yr total revenue (FY2025); net premiums written ~$71.6B/yr — an operating conglomerate (insurance, BNSF rail, BHE energy, manufacturing), not a pure investment vehicle. 2 src →
Capital · deployed high
~$1.222T total assets (FY2025); ~$233B+ marketable equity portfolio (Q4 2025) atop wholly-owned operating businesses; equity $717.4B. The 'pile' is equities + op-cos, not a solvency-locked … 2 src →
Capital · in high
Premium inflows ~$71.6B/yr + float growth (~$169B->$171B 2023->2024); operating cash from rail/energy/manufacturing; opportunistic stock sales (sold $75.5B Apple in Q2 2024). 1 src →
Capital · out high
Claims paid on float; acquisitions (OxyChem $9.7B, Taylor Morrison $6.8B, Alphabet $10B in 2026); historically buybacks — but Berkshire paused repurchases while the cash pile grew. 1 src →
Optionality high
free — Buffett/Abel discretion, no external mandate; ~$381.7B cash is genuinely unallocated dry powder, the exception among insurers whose piles are solvency- and liability-matched. 1 src →
Gravity high
~$371B/yr GROSS routed through the economy — NOT thin: real-economy operating conglomerate (BNSF, BHE, insurance, manufacturing), so gravity ~= capital, unlike the pure general-account … 1 src →

Projects & threads

· Berkshire's AI Bet hedge — open · last seen 2026-08-14 · 6 entries

Full item history for Berkshire Hathaway →

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