What Broadcom is up to now

New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): FISCAL Q3 PRINT — revenue $29.6bn (+86%), AI semiconductor revenue $16.7bn (+221%), both beats; Q4 guide $34.8bn / $21.7bn AI landed under a ~$35bn Street figure and the stock fell ~3% on 09-03 from $367.47. First multi-year AI targets: ~$115bn FY27, ~$230bn FY28, demand "already exceeds" them, fab/packaging the constraint. Jalapeño (OpenAI's accelerator) SHIPPED in production; successor "approaching tape-out"; "six XPU customers" claimed but only four named (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic — the last now counted separately and called the future largest). No new backlog figure. The thread's watch text still says "FIVE majors" — Ben's call whether Anthropic is the sixth or a true sixth is still undisclosed. New 09-02: the Q3 FY2026 print date is now company-confirmed for TODAY, after market close, call at 5:00pm ET — firming what the map carried as "next earnings (~early Sept, unconfirmed)." No numbers as of this update; the release lands after the run's window. Three things to check it against: Jalapeño tape-out status, whether a sixth custom-silicon co-design customer joins the five tracked (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Apple, ByteDance), and any updated backlog figure. Analyst consensus points to roughly $29.4bn revenue and ~$16bn AI semiconductor revenue — estimates, not the report. New 08-21: the single biggest financing event on this entity's record. CNBC reported that lenders are structuring roughly $45bn senior and $35bn junior — $70-80bn total — through a SPECIAL-PURPOSE VEHICLE to fund AI chip capacity for Anthropic, with Apollo and Blackstone in talks to participate again. It roughly doubles the $35bn Broadcom/Apollo/Blackstone partnership announced in June (custom chips plus networking, targeting 20+ GW of compute to top AI labs by 2028). Two things make it matter beyond the headline number. First, the structure: an SPV puts first loss on junior lenders rather than on Broadcom's own balance sheet — the same off-balance-sheet guarantee pattern this entity was named in on 08-15, now roughly doubled and formalised. Second, a junior tranche near $35bn is too large to place quietly, so whatever spread it prices at becomes the first public market estimate of AI-buildout credit risk for lab compute. Reported totals still span $60bn to $100bn across outlets, a spread wide enough to suggest the deal is being shopped rather than sized — no filing or signed commitment exists yet, and every figure traces to unnamed lenders. New 08-16: no further movement — no Broadcom-specific coverage today; the week closes on the 08-15 debt-guarantee naming as its last new fact, everything else unchanged. week 2026-08-10 (/week): A quiet structural week (no move since 08-06) that closed with the week's single sharpest Broadcom-specific development — 08-15's Bloomberg reporting named Broadcom as one of three counterparties (with Nvidia and Meta) backstopping roughly $70B of off-balance-sheet AI-buildout guarantees, specifically its $35B chip-deal backstop for Anthropic, drawing on-record concern from Moody's, DoubleLine and CreditSights that echoes Michael Burry's 08-13 solo warning. That's now a named, recurring entity on the `ai-buildout-debt-risk` thread rather than a one-off mention. Every other structural fact — the FCC's Chinese-optical-transceiver review (~40% of Broadcom's transceiver DSP revenue exposed), the >$200B Samsung MOU through 2030, the five-major ASIC co-design book, the Tesco VMware suit — is unchanged across the full 08-10→08-15 window. New 08-15: named in Bloomberg's first quantification of the AI-buildout's off-balance-sheet guarantee pattern — Broadcom is backstopping Anthropic's $35B chip deal, one of roughly $70B in such guarantees (alongside Nvidia's own $500B compute-platform backstop and Meta's earlier data-center debt template) that credit-desk voices (Moody's, DoubleLine, CreditSights) are now flagging as the same "nearly costless until it isn't" risk Michael Burry named alone two days earlier. Added to the `ai-buildout-debt-risk` thread's entity list today as a recurring named counterparty. Standing picture (pre-08-15): no material new development since 08-06. Prior standing read holds: the FCC's weighing of Chinese-optical-transceiver restrictions (a policy lever that would also cut ~40% of the DSP revenue Broadcom earns inside those same transceivers), the >$200B Samsung MOU through 2030 (HBM4/HBM4E supply, sub-2nm foundry, advanced packaging), the five-major ASIC co-design book (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Apple, plus the in-house-silicon overlap), and the ongoing Tesco VMware-licensing suit (>£100M) are all unchanged this week.

as of 2026-09-03