The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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corp L1 Chips

Broadcom

What Broadcom is up to now

Collecting rent on the buildout from both directions — and the second toll just turned adversarial. The custom-ASIC book widened to FIVE majors: Google ($21B TPU order + Anthropic's multi-GW expansion), Meta through 2029 (Hock Tan left Meta's board the same week), OpenAI's Jalapeño now unveiled, and Apple new at $30B through 2031. Meanwhile VMware's licensing backlash became litigation — Tesco pulled 40,000 servers and is suing for >£100M. Capex runs ~10% of D&A: it designs, it doesn't build — the counter-case to every 'in-house silicon' story on the board.

as of 2026-07-28

Sphere us
Pocket Chips

Royal armorer — co-develops OpenAI's Jalapeño ASIC; a supplier whose fortunes track its patrons.

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med
expanding 1 src →
Capital · available high
~$19.6B cash (Q2 FY26, ended May 3 2026); but net debt ~-$45.3B (VMware) pre-commits most of it; ~$50-60B commandable/12mo incl FCF 1 src →
Capital · operating high
~$33B/yr FCF (TTM to May-2026); FY2025 FCF $26.9B 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
TTM dividends $11.8B; buybacks $0 in TTM (paused — deleveraging VMware); capex only ~$0.9B (fabless-lite) 1 src →
Capital · in high
FY2025 revenue $63.9B; TTM revenue $75.5B (Semiconductor Solutions $47.8B + Infrastructure Software $27.7B) 1 src →
Capital · out high
dividends ~$11.8B/yr + VMware-debt paydown (buybacks paused) + small capex ~$0.9B 1 src →
Optionality high
mixed-to-constrained — strong FCF but earmarked to deleveraging the ~$45B VMware net debt; buybacks paused 1 src →
Gravity high
~$63.9B (FY25) / $75.5B (TTM) GROSS revenue — supplier whose custom-AI ASICs (TPU/MTIA/Jalapeño) anchor a far larger hyperscaler-compute downstream 2 src →

Projects & threads

· In-House Silicon resource move ↳ Compute Spend — open · last seen 2026-07-25 · 8 entries
· ASIC Tolls capital flow — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 5 entries
Concluded 1
· Jalapeño — retired · 3 entries

Full item history for Broadcom →

Vocabulary