Capital
Asset managers + sovereign funds; command money they don't own.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 6 of 7 (expanding 6 · consolidating 1) 7 members →
- Capital · available
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · in
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · out
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Optionality
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Gravity
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
What's new this week
- The same filing's risk factors say the quiet part in SEC prose: SB Energy is "substantially dependent on OpenAI," whose guarantor credit it describes as sub-investment-grade, and 81% of the headline backlog is more than eight years out. OpenAI's PORTS-Pike lease alone is 8.0 of the company's 8.8 GW-IT of signed capacity — about 91% — with the rest split between SoftBank's Cosmos campus and OpenAI's Milam County buildings. OpenAI holds 3,991,809 warrants at a nominal $0.01 strike (ten-year term, reported at roughly $5.5bn in value, up from $3.6bn in January) plus a board designation right above a 5% stake, and separately put $500m of equity into SB Energy and pledged $50m of OpenAI product spend through 2028. Of the $439bn backlog, only about $82bn (19%) is expected to be recognized within eight years — $1bn in 24 months, $12bn in 25-48, $30bn in 49-72, $39bn in 73-96 — with the remaining $357bn "thereafter." SoftBank keeps voting control; SB Energy will list as a Nasdaq "controlled company," with share count and price range still to be filed by amendment. (SEC EDGAR S-1, Yahoo Finance citing WSJ)
- SoftBank's record ¥1 trillion ($6.3bn) seven-year retail bond priced at a 4.75% coupon — the top of the 4.3-4.9% indicative range, not the middle. That is more than double the ~2.3% year-to-date average for comparable yen retail corporate bonds. The structure is the story: banks reportedly declined the risk, which left households to set the clearing price, and they set it high. Japan's retail-bond issuance has hit ¥2.88tn year-to-date, already a record for a full year. (Bloomberg)
Members 7
capital directs ~$150-160B (Vision Fund 1 ~$100B LP-heavy + VF2 + $40B OpenAI bridge) + owns 87.1% of Arm inside ~$200B …
- opt
- free but LEVERAGED — Son ~71% voting, deploys at will; crawl …
- grav
- REAL not thin GROSS — Arm underpins world mobile silicon + …
New 09-04: the retail bond PRICED at 4.75% — the TOP of the 4.3-4.9% indicative range, not the middle, and more than double the ~2.3% YTD …
capital commands ~$100B target (~$50B raised)
- opt
- free/aggressive — state-backed (Mubadala + G42)
- grav
- GROSS — AI-infra anchoring (Stargate, GAIIP, Aligned $40B)
capital commands ~$15.3T AUM (Q2-2026) but owns only ~$170B (commands÷owns ≈ 90x) — the sharpest commands-vs-owns case …
- opt
- constrained — AUM is fiduciary/benchmark-bound (~64% …
- grav
- thin — Aladdin dependency ~$1.5B/yr tech-services rev (over …
New 08-16: no further movement — no BlackRock-specific coverage today; the standing infrastructure/MOU picture below holds unchanged into …
capital commands ~$900B AUM (targeting $1T+)
- opt
- free-ish but Vision-2030-directed
- grav
- real GROSS — NEOM + $45B into Vision Fund 1
Saudi sovereign wealth; power projected through capital, not product.
capital directs ~$5.4T AUM (SSGA) but administers ~$51.7T AUC/A in custody; owns ~$28B equity / ~$51B market cap …
- opt
- constrained — fiduciary; Big-Three index / SPDR
- grav
- thin GROSS — ~$13B/yr revenue ($51.7T custody is a monitored …
New 08-16: still quiet — a fourth consecutive check (adding 08-16 to 08-09/08-14/08-15) finds nothing. Board-pass note: this now-repeated …
capital directs ~$10-12T AUM, owns ~$0 (client-owned at-cost mutual) — the most extreme commands-vs-owns on the board
- opt
- constrained/near-locked — index/passive, no free corporate …
- grav
- thin (extreme) GROSS — only the AUM depends on it
New 08-16: still quiet — a fourth consecutive check (adding 08-16 to 08-09/08-14/08-15) finds nothing. Board-pass note: Vanguard carries …
capital directs ~$7.0T discretionary + ~$17.9T AUA; private op-co (revenue $37.7B), ~40% Johnson family
- opt
- constrained-but-softer — active franchise + family control
- grav
- GROSS — the platform exception: 401k rails for 28,800+ …
Family-controlled private op-co; the platform exception among asset managers (401k rails).