state
L1
China
What China is up to now
Decoupling the full AI stack — domestic chips (Z.AI's 1GW site), open-weight models (Kimi, Qwen, GLM, DeepSeek) as soft power, and its own proposed export controls on models/weights/training data, backed by national-team market intervention. Moving from catch-up to a parallel stack.
as of 2026-07-24
Sphere china
Tier Apex
The metrics
- Posture high
- expanding 2 src →
- Capital · available high
- ~$3.85T FX reserves (May-2026) + ~$3.97T state SWFs (CIC + SAFE Investment + National Social Security Fund) — the largest sovereign dry powder on earth 2 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$6.18T annual govt expenditure / ~$4.83T revenue (2024) 1 src →
- Capital · deployed low
- gross govt debt 99.2% of GDP (2025) ≈ ~$18-20T nominal (derived from GDP × ratio) — includes large local-govt/LGFV exposure; committed to chip/AI self-sufficiency programs 1 src →
- Capital · in high
- ~$4.83T tax + SOE/land revenue (2024, 26.4% of GDP) 1 src →
- Capital · out high
- ~$6.18T expenditure (2024); deficit -$1.36T (-7.43% of GDP) 1 src →
- Optionality med
- mixed — massive net-creditor reserves + SWF firepower give real freedom, but the RMB is not a full reserve currency, capital controls bind, and the currency is state-managed. Fiscal freedom … 1 src →
- Gravity high
- ~$20.85T GDP (nominal, IMF 2026) — the #2 single-state gravity; the state's gravity IS its GDP 1 src →
Projects & threads
No live threads tagged to this actor this week.
Vocabulary