Chips
Designers, intermediaries, and memory — the silicon layer.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 7 of 8 (expanding 7 · hedging 1) 8 members →
- Capital · available
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Capital · in
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Capital · out
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Optionality
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
- Gravity
- across 8 members — open each for the figure + sources 8 members →
What's new this week
- The guarantee's market verdict: NVDA −4%, credit-default swaps wider — "AI stocks crash" headlines; the $250B/$500B/$750B figure is inconsistent across outlets, unresolved. (CNBC · Axios)
- CXMT closed its debut +466% at ~$489B — the most valuable China-listed company, above Intel's market cap; Micron fell 8% on the read-through; overhangs: a US DoD ban + a three-year HBM deficit. (CNBC · Nikkei)
- Nvidia −4%, credit-default swaps wider, on its own $250B guarantee — "AI stocks crash" headlines; Axios: "reignites circular financing concerns"; bond desks re-pricing "$1T+/yr of AI." CoreWeave/Nebius rose on the constructive read. (CNBC · Axios)
- CXMT surged 466–472% on its Shanghai STAR debut — mainland China's most valuable listed company on day one (absolute mcap figure thin — primary fetches blocked). (Reuters)
- KKR launched a $10B "Helix" AI-infrastructure venture backed by Kuwait's sovereign fund, Nvidia, and Vistra — the asset-manager buildout position keeps growing. (via Google News)
- The guarantee firmed to $250B (WSJ/Reuters/CNBC) — and the market answered: NVDA −5%, CDS record single-day widening.
- Nvidia committing $5B to Safe Superintelligence — pre-product, a "long-term strategic partnership" (Bloomberg/Reuters). The stake ladder extends to a company with no product.
- Nvidia in talks to backstop up to $500B for a 10GW Ohio megasite (SB Energy/SoftBank; largest single-site figure on the map). The weekend's figure tangle resolves as THREE numbers: $250B guarantee · $500B total project · $350B separate chip-financing. Microsoft, Google, Anthropic are interested tenants, not backers — "Microsoft-backed" headlines overclaim. (CNBC)
- Korea's "Black Tuesday" session closed −10–11% with circuit breakers — SK Hynix below $140 (−10-13%), Samsung down with it; China chip-competition fear compounding AI volatility. SK Hynix reports within 24h. ([Reuters/Korea Times])
- Samsung chip workers reportedly jumping to SK Hynix — the squeeze's labor-market symptom; MIT TR pins the driver: a ~100x bonus gap.
- Anthropic asked SK Hynix + Samsung for chip supply — a new demand-side actor joins the memory queue (Bloomberg/Digitimes 07-25/27).
- ⛔ Conflation caught: "CXMT debut triggered a Capitol Hill probe" — the Moolenaar/Whitesides letter is dated 07-16, eleven days pre-debut, and never mentions the IPO. Genuinely new today: an on-record federal official suspecting CCP-orchestrated price action.
- NVDA −5% · CDS record single-day gain on the firmed $250B guarantee.
- Nvidia → SSI $5B — vendor capital into a pre-product lab (~$32B valuation, zero commercial product).
Members 9
capital ~$200-300B commandable/12mo (liquid $80.6B Apr-2026 + ~$119B/yr FCF + near-zero net debt); market cap ~$5T is a …
- opt
- free — no fiduciary mandate, near-zero leverage; ~$30B …
- grav
- ~$1.0T/yr GROSS orbiting AI-infra (Nvidia DC run-rate + the …
Became the buildout's lender of last resort — the figures now resolved as three: $250B guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio site ($500B total project …
capital ~$50-60B commandable/12mo ($19.6B cash + ~$33B/yr FCF) but net debt ~-$45B (VMware) pre-commits much of it; …
- opt
- mixed-to-constrained — free cash earmarked to deleveraging …
- grav
- ~$63.9B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue — hyperscaler custom-AI ASICs …
Collecting rent on the buildout from both directions — and the second toll just turned adversarial. The custom-ASIC book widened to FIVE …
capital ~$70B commandable/12mo ($39B cash+STI + ~$30B/yr FCF); market cap ~$930B is a separate label
- opt
- mixed — capex-cyclical; SK chaebol control
- grav
- ~$70-80B/yr GROSS direct (the HBM the whole buildout needs; …
The incumbent under the sharpest shock in the trio: ~55% HBM share, first through Nvidia's HBM4 qualification (reportedly 60-70% of Vera …
capital ~$50-55B commandable/12mo ($26B cash+STI + ~$26B/yr FCF, net cash $24B); market cap $1.04T is a separate label
- opt
- mixed — FCF earmarked to US megafabs + CHIPS
- grav
- ~22% of DRAM revenue GROSS across DC+AI+PC+auto (DRAM/NAND); …
The #3, most whiplashed by Nvidia's favor — excluded from early Vera Rubin HBM4 slots in February, reinstated by June, HBM4 now in high- …
capital state-backed IPO ~$8.5-9.8B fresh + Big Fund; market cap ~$85B is the mark (separate label)
- opt
- locked — state-directed (36.29% state pre-IPO, …
- grav
- ~7.6% of DRAM revenue GROSS — China's domestic memory …
Just became the symbol: listed 07-27 on STAR at +466% to ~$489B — the most valuable China-listed company, past Intel's market cap — with …
capital ~$25-35B commandable/12mo ($12.35B cash + ~$8.6B/yr FCF, net cash $8.5B); market cap $851B is a separate label
- opt
- mostly free — net cash; self-earmarked to AI-GPU R&D + …
- grav
- GROSS — x86 server + PC + DC-GPU on AMD silicon (AMD-claimed …
The credible #2 AI-GPU challenger; net-cash and mostly free to deploy.
capital ~$25-30B commandable/12mo ($9.8B cash + ~$12.5B/yr FCF); market cap $176B is a separate label
- opt
- mostly free
- grav
- GROSS — premium-Android ecosystem (Snapdragon; ~39% …
The RISC-V hedge cooled into something bigger: the same June Investor Day that buried the Tenstorrent talks (CEO denial within two weeks) …
capital ~$60B total assets (€54.7B, Jun-2026); market cap is a separate label
- opt
- free — strong balance sheet, little encumbrance
- grav
- GROSS — sole EUV supplier; no leading-edge chip is made …
The EUV monopoly — the tightest chokepoint on the board; rentier with an emerging AI-stakes tilt (Mistral 11%).
capital ~$5B/12mo ($3.6B cash + ~$1B/yr FCF) — TINY vs its gravity; market cap $278B is a separate label
- opt
- constrained — 87.1% SoftBank-controlled
- grav
- GROSS — ISA under ~99% of smartphones + DC (Grace/Graviton) …
No longer a pure rentier: shipped its first in-house chip in 35 years (the 'AGI CPU,' Mar-26, Meta launch customer) — now competing with its …