The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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corp L1 Chips

CXMT

What CXMT is up to now

Just became the symbol: listed 07-27 on STAR at +466% to ~$489B — the most valuable China-listed company, past Intel's market cap — with proceeds earmarked for DRAM/HBM capacity. Already charging MORE than Samsung for DRAM while evicting Huawei-linked engineers; new modules shipped with no price relief. Overhangs: a US DoD ban and the three-year HBM deficit it's racing into. The memory squeeze's capital-markets marker, state-funded and working.

as of 2026-07-28

Sphere china
Pocket Chips

China's domestic DRAM push; STAR-Market IPO (CXMT IPO thread).

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture high
expanding 1 src →
Capital · available high
~$8.5B fresh IPO proceeds (up to ~$9.8B with 15% overallotment); + state 'Big Fund' backing (Big Fund specifics low-confidence) 3 src →
Capital · operating low
no clean operating-cash-flow / FCF figure (newly public, prospectus-only); revenue growing fast but profitability undisclosed here 1 src →
Capital · deployed low
IPO proceeds earmarked to domestic DRAM/HBM capacity expansion (specific capex figure not located — low confidence) 1 src →
Capital · in low
IPO ~$8.5-9.8B + recent-period revenue ~$7.4B (50.8B yuan, +700% YoY). NB the $7.4B is reported as 'Q1 2026' but that scale implies an ANNUAL figure for a ~7.7% DRAM player — period … 1 src →
Capital · out low
capacity capex (state-directed buildout); dividends/buybacks not applicable (growth-stage, state-backed) — figures not located 1 src →
Optionality med
locked — state-directed capital (36.29% state pre-IPO); Entity-List/DoD-1260H constrained; strategic, not return-maximizing 2 src →
Gravity med
~7.7% of the global DRAM market GROSS — China's domestic memory-independence supplier (feeds Alibaba / ByteDance / Xiaomi); strategic gravity >> its current commercial scale 2 src →

This week — what changed

Projects & threads

· CXMT IPO resource move — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 9 entries
· Memory Squeeze scarcity — developing · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries

Full item history for CXMT →

Vocabulary