The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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DeepSeek

What DeepSeek is up to now

V4 shipped (open weights); reportedly weighing a $71B raise and a 2026 IPO. Part of China's full-stack decoupling, moving as a bloc with the other domestic labs rather than as a lone story.

as of 2026-07-24

Sphere china
Pocket Frontier labs

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture high
expanding 2 src →
Capital · available high
SUPERSEDES the Apr-2026 $300M/$10B report — DeepSeek closed a $7-7.4B first external round in Jun-2026 at a ~$50-52B post-money valuation; a second round seeking $1.5B at a reported $71-74B … 9 src →
Capital · operating high
no revenue disclosed — 'focuses on research, no immediate commercialization plans'; V3 training cost ~$5.576M (official technical report); V4 (Apr-2026) training cost NOT disclosed in any … 4 src →
Capital · deployed high
GPU stockpile already in hand (~10,000 pre-2021 A100s + Fire-Flyer 2's 5,000 A100s in 625 nodes) — capital is compute-owned, NOT new external commitments; China has since granted DeepSeek … 4 src →
Capital · in low
High-Flyer hedge-fund backing + the $7-7.4B first external round (Jun-2026, closed) + an attempted-then-paused $1.5B second round (Jul-2026); ultra-cheap API (V2 at 2 RMB per million output … 4 src →
Capital · out high
lean compute — training costs cited in low-single-digit $M; no confirmed large external multi-year compute commitment (export-locked, though China has granted conditional H200 access, and a … 1 src →
Optionality low
constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked and carrying reported PLA / state-lab ties; two new pulls in opposite directions since 2026-07-26: (a) China has eased chip … 5 src →
Gravity low
no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap API (impact proxy: #1 US iOS app, ~$600B Nvidia 1-day loss Jan-2025). New 2026-07-28 proxy data: Chinese open-weight models … 5 src →

Holdings

Deepseek v4

Projects & threads

· China's Stack border dispute — open · last seen 2026-07-26 · 10 entries

Full item history for DeepSeek →

Vocabulary