The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← The Map

pocket

Foundries

The fabs. Whoever prints the silicon.

The metrics — aggregated from members; click for the breakdown

Posture
expanding — 1 of 4 (expanding 1 · hedging 1 · retrenching 1 · consolidating 1) 4 members →
Capital · available
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Capital · operating
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Capital · deployed
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Capital · in
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Capital · out
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Optionality
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →
Gravity
across 4 members — open each for the figure + sources 4 members →

What's new this week

Members 4

2 threads

capital ~$200B+ commandable/12mo (~$119B cash+mkt-securities Jun-2026 + ~$89B/yr operating cash flow, self-funded; + …

opt
mixed — FCF-free but a rising slice locked to the forced …
grav
~$150B/yr GROSS foundry revenue atop multi-trillion …

New 08-25 (late catch, 08-24 event): TSMC is the fab behind Xiaomi's new in-house 3nm flagship SoC. Xiaomi launched the Xring/Xuanjie O3 — …

2 threads

capital ~$150B+ commandable/12mo ($98B cash Mar-2026 group + ~$50-60B/yr operating cash flow)

opt
constrained — chaebol Lee-family control; HBM-vs-foundry …
grav
~$220.7B/yr GROSS group revenue; foundry slice small …

New 08-23: unveiled zHBM at Hot Chips 2026 day two — memory stacked directly atop the compute die, claiming 230% more bandwidth and 70% …

us 4 threads

capital ~$45B/12mo but consumed ($29.7B cash+STI + ~$14.9B/yr operating cash flow eaten by capex, net -$11.2B TTM); US …

opt
locked/constrained — turnaround (24k layoffs, DE/PL fabs …
grav
~$53B/yr GROSS revenue; external foundry gravity tiny, …

New 08-28: the 14A process posted its first real defect-density and yield data point, filling a gap this map had explicitly named as missing …

gulf 1 thread

capital ~$5B/12mo organic ($3B cash + ~$1.9B/yr operating cash flow; + CHIPS ~$2.175B incl. two new gov-equity stakes …

opt
mixed — self-funded but Mubadala 73% directs
grav
~$6.84B/yr GROSS — specialty/mature nodes for …

Mubadala controls 73% (trimmed from 82%, May 2026) — specialty/mature-node foundry, trusted supplier to auto/defense/RF.

Vocabulary