Frontier labs
The model-makers — capital is raised compute money.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 7 of 7 (expanding 7) 7 members →
- Capital · available
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · in
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Capital · out
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Optionality
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
- Gravity
- across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
What's new this week
- The guarantee's market verdict: NVDA −4%, credit-default swaps wider — "AI stocks crash" headlines; the $250B/$500B/$750B figure is inconsistent across outlets, unresolved. (CNBC · Axios)
- SoftBank's $40B OpenAI loan added 21 lenders (Standard Chartered, GIC named) — expanding, NOT confirmed closed. (Bloomberg)
- SpaceX: fresh all-time low near $100 (−49% off high; CME launched SPCX single-stock futures); earnings Aug 4, insider unlock ~Aug 6. (Yahoo)
- Opus 5 reception: ARC-AGI-3 record, 42/42 on IMO-class tasks, default on Max, live on Bedrock — and added to Microsoft 365 Copilot (Microsoft hedging in both directions at once). (Tech Times)
- Altman scheduled into Washington this week (Trump administration, senators, Senate Intel top Democrat) — scheduling reports only, no meeting confirmed today; EO-14409 query itself returned zero items. (CNBC)
- xAI joined the Open Secure AI Alliance — a safety-signal move in the same cycle as the Arkansas suit and NCOSE pressure.
- The OpenAI embolism suit kept generating coverage (filed Sunday; "take it easy" advice before a near-fatal PE). (Silicon UK + others)
- NCOSE demanded xAI stop Grok generating CSAM — advocacy pressure following the Arkansas suit (thin — org statement); Memphis local press bundling the litigation with xAI's expansion. (endsexualexploitation.org)
- Nvidia −4%, credit-default swaps wider, on its own $250B guarantee — "AI stocks crash" headlines; Axios: "reignites circular financing concerns"; bond desks re-pricing "$1T+/yr of AI." CoreWeave/Nebius rose on the constructive read. (CNBC · Axios)
- SpaceX: fresh all-time low, third straight down day — HSBC initiated at $115 (Friday closed $115.07); Morgan Stanley: ~$100–115 prices the AI/Starlink optionality at zero. ✅ Conflict resolved same day (primary source): SpaceX priced 06-11 at \$135/sh (\$1.77T, \$75B raised) and has traded as Nasdaq:SPCX since 06-12 — the weekend sweep's "priced 07-24" was a misread of trading commentary; all inherited references corrected. (equiti/Economic Times/Motley Fool via aggregation)
- The guarantee firmed to $250B (WSJ/Reuters/CNBC) — and the market answered: NVDA −5%, CDS record single-day widening.
- ⛔ Rumor killed (primary-check rule): "SpaceX acquiring Cursor for $60B" traces to a June blog post recycled by content farms — zero tier-1 corroboration. NOT news; logged so it stays dead.
- Nvidia in talks to backstop up to $500B for a 10GW Ohio megasite (SB Energy/SoftBank; largest single-site figure on the map). The weekend's figure tangle resolves as THREE numbers: $250B guarantee · $500B total project · $350B separate chip-financing. Microsoft, Google, Anthropic are interested tenants, not backers — "Microsoft-backed" headlines overclaim. (CNBC)
- Anthropic asked SK Hynix + Samsung for chip supply — a new demand-side actor joins the memory queue (Bloomberg/Digitimes 07-25/27).
Members 8
capital ~$120B cumulative raised (Series G $30B + H $65B dominate; + multi-$10B compute backing Amazon Rainier / Google …
- opt
- mixed — founder/board equity, no state; but heavily …
- grav
- >$5B/yr GROSS run-rate revenue, 300k+ business customers …
Shipped Claude Opus 5 (07-24, same price as 4.8, SOTA coding/agentic, 'most aligned to date') and reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO …
capital ~$180B cumulative raised/committed (2019-2026); the $852B valuation is the mark, not drawable cash
- opt
- locked — ~85-90% pre-earmarked (~$1.0-1.4T compute …
- grav
- ~$1.0-1.4T anchored-compute STOCK (~$175B/yr GROSS …
Raising and committing at a scale that now needs its chip vendor as guarantor — Nvidia in talks to backstop $250-500B of financing for the …
capital ~$4.2B cumulative raised (€2B Sep-2025 incl ASML $1.5B/11%; $830M Mar-2026 for datacenters); valuation €12B/$14B …
- opt
- mixed — VC + strategic industrials; EU-sovereignty tailwind, …
- grav
- no clean $ figure — open-weight adoption + Accenture channel …
Barely tracked — the French national champion under state patronage, but we hold no thread on what it's shipping or raising right now. A …
capital self-funded via High-Flyer (Liang 84%); ~$300M first external round; core asset is a pre-export-control GPU …
- opt
- constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked …
- grav
- no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap …
V4 shipped (open weights); reportedly weighing a $71B raise and a 2026 IPO. Part of China's full-stack decoupling, moving as a bloc with the …
capital ~$44B liquid (cash+STI Mar-2026), falling ~45% in two years into the ~¥380B AI buildout; market cap ~$269B
- opt
- constrained — cash-rich but China state-steered (MofCom …
- grav
- ~$1.05T GMV GROSS (VERY gross — commerce GMV) + ~$22B/yr …
Previewed Qwen3.8-Max (2.4T params) and open-sourced the Zhenwu chip stack aimed squarely at CUDA — the "decouple the whole stack" play, …
capital ~$16B cash + demonstrated ~$75B raise access (Jun-2026 IPO); market cap ~$1.52T (SPCX) is a separate label. NB …
- opt
- free — Musk ~82% voting so outside holders cannot bind him; …
- grav
- ~$85B/yr GROSS orbiting (Starlink + launch-dependent + …
Six weeks into life as Nasdaq:SPCX (priced 06-11 at $135/sh, $1.77T — the largest IPO ever, $75B raised) the market verdict is harsh: fresh …
capital CONSOLIDATED into spacex — ~$500M annualized revenue vs ~$1B/mo burn are operating color, not a separate capital …
An L2 subnode of SpaceX now, not a company: reportedly dissolved as a separate legal entity and folded into SpaceXAI (07-06) — the identity …
capital Alphabet-scale (parent commands $403B rev / $132B NI 2025 + $80B AI raise Jun-2026); own operating revenue only …
- opt
- constrained — parent-directed, cannot independently raise …
- grav
- ~$58.7B/yr GROSS Google Cloud revenue (2025) + Gemini …
Alphabet subsidiary — parent-directed, cannot independently raise; same capital pool as google (don't double-count). Distinct science-rigor …