What Google is up to now
New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): SHIPPED GEMINI 3.8 FLASH AND 3.8 FLASH CYBER at 11:00 ET — third Flash in six weeks at unchanged pricing ($0.75 / $3.75 per million tokens), 54.9% on HLE-Verified, DeepSWE v1.1 claims against larger frontier models; the Cyber variant goes to "trusted defenders" through a new Fairwind Program, Google's own lab-run gate alongside OpenAI's Daybreak and Anthropic's CVP. Gemini 3.5 Pro is still "AWOL" per 09-03 coverage while four Flash models shipped in 106 days. Also: Michigan City, Indiana moved to a moratorium on future data centers while exempting Google's $832M "Project Maize" already under construction (second reading 09-15); OpenAI's Effingham school-meals grant sits in the same backlash pattern. Berkshire's Abel called Alphabet "a significant player" 09-02 (on berkshire-hathaway). New 08-29: a WSJ exclusive (08-26) reports Google moved its roughly 90-person AI responsibility team -- CBRN risk, human-AI interaction, chatbot-psychology research -- out of DeepMind and into global affairs/lobbying. Two DeepMind staff told WSJ they fear this cuts the team off from the models it is meant to evaluate, an internal governance signal distinct from the market/leadership moves logged below. New 08-28: repriced, and not on earnings. Bloomberg put Alphabet down roughly 15% from its 05-13 all-time-high close of $402.38 to $340.65 on 08-27 — around $700bn of market value gone since May (Bloomberg's headline says $700bn, its own URL slug says $692bn; both are Bloomberg's). The attributed causes are people and schedule, not results: Jeff Dean's departure to found a startup taking senior colleagues, Hassabis stepping down as DeepMind CEO, earlier researcher losses to Anthropic and OpenAI, Gemini 3.5 Pro behind schedule with coding singled out, and free-cash-flow concerns tied to a $25bn early-August bond offering. Counter-move the same day: Barret Zoph joined Google DeepMind as VP of Research on RL and post-training, under Kavukcuoglu — inbound senior talent in the exact week the outbound flow is being priced. NOTE Bloomberg blocks every fetch transport available here; this rests on its own syndication mirrors carrying the Carmen Reinicke byline, not the page itself. New 08-16: still quiet since 08-14 — no Google-specific development in either day's sweep. The only adjacent mention is Alibaba's Qwen family passing 3 billion open-weight downloads (08-15), more than Google's and Meta's combined — a China-stack story, not a Google move (see the china/alibaba-qwen entries). Standing picture below holds. New 08-14: Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 13F, filed on the SEC deadline (16:05 ET), confirmed and hardened the 08-08 move into filed-position numbers — the Alphabet stake very nearly doubled in share count (57.83M to 106.0M combined Class A/C, +83%) and its dollar value grew even faster ($16.63B to $37.76B, +127%, share growth plus price appreciation), with no other AI-adjacent equity joining it anywhere in the 29-issuer portfolio. Same day, Google let Gemini/Flow users toggle off the visible watermark on AI-generated images, video and music via a new setting (the invisible SynthID mark and C2PA metadata stay regardless) — a pointed contrast to Anthropic taking backlash the same week for making its own Claude watermarking mandatory with no opt-out. New 08-13: shipped Gemini 3.7 Flash, a coding/agent-focused update at half its predecessor's token price. DeepMind leadership-transition coverage kept recirculating this week (a fresh wave of "Hassabis chair, Kavukcuoglu CEO" pieces, plus an uncorroborated single-outlet claim about a Nvidia-proposed DeepMind governance paper in Nature) but the coverage critic traced it back to the already-old transition and an already-old Hassabis governance-body remark from 07-14 — no material update beyond the 08-05/08-06 picture already carried here. New 08-10: quietly open-sourced TPU Raiden, an Apache-2.0 library for moving KV-cache data between chips during serving — the TPU-stack answer to Nvidia's NIXL, flagged by SemiAnalysis rather than announced, not yet recommended for general use by its own repo. Small as code, larger as a signal: the first concrete move toward externalising the TPU stack the way Nvidia externalised CUDA. Standing picture: pouring capital into the buildout — 2026 capex guidance $195-205B, "significantly more" flagged for 2027. Pretraining Gemini 4, testing Gemini 3.5 Pro, supplying the model layer for Apple Intelligence outside China (see apple entry for the China-specific Alibaba deal). A participant in the White House pre-release review framework. Owns its mines (TPUs). Destination traced 07-27: a 15+ state site land-grab + India, solar-heavy power + the first Gen-IV utility PPA (TVA/Kairos '30). Guaranteeing a ~$15B bank loan for Nexus Data Centers' Anthropic-leased Texas campus (~20% project equity). Leadership reset at the top of the lab (08-05/06): Demis Hassabis steps down as DeepMind CEO to become chairman + Alphabet's Chief Scientist, Koray Kavukcuoglu promoted to DeepMind SVP reporting direct to Pichai, Jeff Dean leaves to found "Discovery Loop" (an AI-for-science PBC, four senior researchers, Google as founding investor) — reads as real succession (Kavukcuoglu already running Gemini day-to-day, including Gemini 4) rather than a sudden exit, per Semafor reporting that Hassabis had been delegating for about a year. Alphabet fell ~4-5% (~$160-200B) the day of the announcement. Unconfirmed backdrop: Google's models reportedly running ~6 months behind frontier coding capability.
as of 2026-09-03
The metrics
- Posture med
- expanding 2 src →
- Capital · available med
- ~$242B cash+STI (Q2-2026) — but see note: up sharply from ~$127B Dec-2025 on a large debt raise 2 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$186B/yr operating cash flow (TTM ended Jun-2026); $164.7B FY25 1 src →
- Capital · deployed high
- ~$132B/yr capex in-flight (TTM), up from ~$91B FY25 — TPU + datacenter estate 1 src →
- Capital · in high
- ~$446B TTM revenue (FY25 $402.8B); ads ~$315B + Cloud $77.6B (FY25) 2 src →
- Capital · out high
- ~$188B/yr out: ~$132B capex + ~$10B dividends + ~$17B buybacks (TTM); buybacks slowing 1 src →
- Optionality high
- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it free, but ~$132B/yr TTM AI capex is self-earmarked; new debt adds an interest claim 2 src →
- Gravity high
- GROSS ~$403B/yr FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud $77.6B; ~$446B TTM) — revenue-as-proxy, undeflated per board policy; NO partner-multiplier reconstruction done (lower bound) 2 src →
Holdings
Dependents
This week — what changed
- Spot HBM is trading at four to five times long-term contract prices. Korean trade press puts spot HBM3E (36GB) near $2,100 against contract-equivalent pricing of roughly $350–490, and HBM4 (16-layer) spot near $3,500. The attributed causes are HBM4's lower yield consuming more DRAM wafer capacity per unit, and Samsung's already-recorded July commitment of 70% of capacity to long-term agreements starving the spot market. The report adds that Nvidia, Microsoft and Google reportedly cannot get their full contracted volumes. ⚠️ Figures are converted from Korean won — directional, not exact. (Seoul Economic Daily)
- Google signed the largest enhanced-geothermal power-purchase agreement on record, 396MW with Fervo Energy for its Utah Cape Station project, online 2028 with an option to nearly 1GW by 2030 — a third clean-generation category in Google's power book alongside solar and nuclear. Full write-up in the global-capital digest.
- Google signed a 396MW power-purchase agreement with Fervo Energy — the largest enhanced-geothermal PPA ever signed — for output from Fervo's Cape Station project in Utah, online 2028, with an option to expand to nearly 1GW by June 2030. Extends a Google/Fervo relationship dating to a 2021 pilot, and sits alongside Google's existing power book (TotalEnergies/Clearway solar, TVA/Kairos nuclear) as a third clean-generation category rather than the gas pivot Meta and others have taken. Fervo shares jumped nearly 15%. (Bloomberg, GlobeNewswire, primary)
- Greg Abel gave his first on-record AI comments since the Q2 13F, and added a leg this thread had not heard from him: Berkshire Hathaway Energy's own upside. In a CNBC interview from Tokyo, Berkshire's CEO called Alphabet a "significant player" in AI — "We have a lot of visibility from within our companies as to how we're using AI, what type of benefits it's delivering, so that brought incremental interest, and then we saw Google as a significant player" — and put roughly $17bn of Alphabet shares added in the quarter (a different framing from the 13F's own $16.63bn→$37.76bn value read; likely cost basis versus market value, not itemized further in the coverage). Alphabet is now Berkshire's third-largest equity holding. The new part: Abel tied AI directly to BHE's growth, citing Iowa data centers already consuming roughly 8% of the state's regional power load, and said "I've sort of always had the strong view that energy would be the constraint... We do still see it as a significant opportunity." That is a first-party statement connecting this thread to the power-as-constraint story the map runs on Power Buildout — the outside allocator arriving at the map's own thesis independently. (Reuters via Investing.com, CNBC)
Projects & threads
Full item history for Google →
