The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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corp L1 Hyperscalers expanding

Google

What Google is up to now

Pouring capital into the buildout — raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–205B and flagged "significantly more" for 2027 (the market punished it, GOOGL −6% despite a Cloud beat). On models it's pretraining Gemini 4, its most ambitious run, while testing Gemini 3.5 Pro and supplying the model layer for Apple Intelligence. A participant in the White House pre-release review framework. Owns its mines (TPUs), which is what lets it spend at this scale. Destination traced 07-27: a 15+ state site land-grab + India, solar-heavy power + the first Gen-IV utility PPA (TVA/Kairos '30).

as of 2026-07-24

Posture expanding
Sphere us
Pocket Hyperscalers

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med
expanding 2 src →
Capital · available med
~$242B cash+STI (Q2-2026) — but see note: up sharply from ~$127B Dec-2025 on a large debt raise 2 src →
Capital · operating high
~$186B/yr operating cash flow (TTM ended Jun-2026); $164.7B FY25 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
~$132B/yr capex in-flight (TTM), up from ~$91B FY25 — TPU + datacenter estate 1 src →
Capital · in high
~$446B TTM revenue (FY25 $402.8B); ads ~$315B + Cloud $77.6B (FY25) 2 src →
Capital · out high
~$188B/yr out: ~$132B capex + ~$10B dividends + ~$17B buybacks (TTM); buybacks slowing 1 src →
Optionality high
free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it free, but ~$132B/yr TTM AI capex is self-earmarked; new debt adds an interest claim 2 src →
Gravity high
GROSS ~$403B/yr FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud $77.6B; ~$446B TTM) — revenue-as-proxy, undeflated per board policy; NO partner-multiplier reconstruction done (lower bound) 2 src →

Holdings

GeminiDeepmindTpuGoogle cloud

Dependents

Projects & threads

· Google Capex buildout race ↳ Hyperscaler Capex — developing · last seen 2026-07-27 · 19 entries
· Frontier Gatekeeping authority claim — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 9 entries
· Apple × Gemini partnership — developing · last seen 2026-07-28 · 8 entries
· In-House Silicon resource move ↳ Compute Spend — open · last seen 2026-07-25 · 8 entries
Hyperscaler Capex buildout race — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries
· Google Health partnership ↳ Big Tech into Health — open · last seen · 6 entries
Compute Spend resource move ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen · 3 entries
Big Tech into Health partnership — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 3 entries
Where the Capex Lands buildout race — open · last seen · 2 entries

Full item history for Google →

Vocabulary