The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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pocket

Hyperscalers

Cloud + platform giants; own the compute and the distribution.

The metrics — aggregated from members; click for the breakdown

Posture
expanding — 3 of 5 (expanding 3 · hedging 2) 5 members →
Capital · available
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Capital · operating
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Capital · deployed
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Capital · in
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Capital · out
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Optionality
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
Gravity
across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →

What's new this week

Members 7

Sundar Pichai expanding us 9 threads

capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …

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free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
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~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …

New 10-01: SUNCATCHER IN ORBIT. Google said it confirmed contact with its first Project Suncatcher prototype, carrying four TPUs, after the …

Satya Nadella hedging us 11 threads

capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …

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mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
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~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …

New 10-01: MORE IN-HOUSE MODELS. Microsoft AI launched MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming, its first real-time transcription model, plus …

Andy Jassy expanding us 8 threads

capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …

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mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
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~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …

New 09-30 to 10-02: CHIPS OFF THE BALANCE SHEET, POWER AND A COMMUNITY PLEDGE. The FT reported Amazon is exploring moving about $8bn of …

Mark Zuckerberg expanding us 9 threads

capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …

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mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
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~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …

New 10-02/03: OPENING MUSE TO HARDWARE, AND TO MATH. Meta released Muse Gadgets, open-source firmware and a Linux SDK for building …

Tim Cook in succession us 2 threads
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free

→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01

New 10-02: TIGHTENING WHAT AGENTS CAN READ. Apple said it will add controls around macOS 'Full Disk Access', requiring 'very explicit user …

Larry Ellison expanding us 7 threads

capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …

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constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
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~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + $638B RPO …

New 09-30: Tencent leased about 100,000 advanced AI chips from Oracle in a five-year deal worth about $7bn, the Financial Times reported. …

us 1 thread
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constrained

New 09-22/23: CONVERTIBLE CLOSED, ANALYSTS SPLIT. CoreWeave closed its upsized $4.2bn 2.875% convertible due 2033 (option exercised in full, …

Vocabulary