Hyperscalers
Cloud + platform giants; own the compute and the distribution.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 3 of 5 (expanding 3 · hedging 2) 5 members →
- Capital · available
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · in
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · out
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Optionality
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Gravity
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
What's new this week
- TechCrunch reported Character.ai filed for bankruptcy in early October, with Disney the opening bidder at $20 million for a licence to some of its intellectual property (Oct 24) — TechCrunch reported the company cited legal, regulatory and operational headwinds, that the app is still running during the process, and that the sale is expected to wrap up by late November or early December. It also reported Google paid a reported $2.7 billion in 2024 to license Character.ai's technology and bring its founders back. (TechCrunch)
- The Times of India's headline reported Microsoft told Nscale, described as the UK's biggest data-centre developer, something was "not possible" after repeated delays (Oct 26) — Headline-only: the headline is cut off in the corpus's record, so what was not possible, and what followed the delays, were not read. (Google News, The Times of India)
- Anthropic's S-1 details compute commitments of about $3.1 billion a month to SpaceX, $44.9 billion with Microsoft, at least $114.5 billion with Google and $110 billion with Amazon (Oct 26) — The Verge reported the SpaceX commitment could total as much as $120.5 billion by 2029 once all planned capacity is delivered, the Microsoft commitment runs through 2033, the Google commitment through 2033 and the Amazon commitment over ten years. The filing's text confirms the $44.9 billion (November 2026 to May 2033) and $114.5 billion (April 2026 to July 2033) amounts. TechCrunch reported the S-1 also warns Amazon, Google and Microsoft may prioritize their own needs or rivals they have invested in, which could make it hard to secure compute. (SEC filing, The Verge, TechCrunch)
- Invezz's headline reported Nvidia will invest $3 billion in Meta as AI spending drives a $97.5 billion fundraising (Oct 27) — Headline-only: what the $97.5 billion covers and the investment's structure were not read. (Google News, Invezz)
Members 7
capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …
- opt
- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
- grav
- ~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …
New 10-01: SUNCATCHER IN ORBIT. Google said it confirmed contact with its first Project Suncatcher prototype, carrying four TPUs, after the …
capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
- grav
- ~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …
New 10-01: MORE IN-HOUSE MODELS. Microsoft AI launched MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming, its first real-time transcription model, plus …
capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …
- opt
- mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
- grav
- ~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …
New 09-30 to 10-02: CHIPS OFF THE BALANCE SHEET, POWER AND A COMMUNITY PLEDGE. The FT reported Amazon is exploring moving about $8bn of …
capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
- grav
- ~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …
New 10-02/03: OPENING MUSE TO HARDWARE, AND TO MATH. Meta released Muse Gadgets, open-source firmware and a Linux SDK for building …
- opt
- free
→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01
New 10-02: TIGHTENING WHAT AGENTS CAN READ. Apple said it will add controls around macOS 'Full Disk Access', requiring 'very explicit user …
capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …
- opt
- constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
- grav
- ~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + $638B RPO …
New 09-30: Tencent leased about 100,000 advanced AI chips from Oracle in a five-year deal worth about $7bn, the Financial Times reported. …
- opt
- constrained
New 09-22/23: CONVERTIBLE CLOSED, ANALYSTS SPLIT. CoreWeave closed its upsized $4.2bn 2.875% convertible due 2033 (option exercised in full, …
