Hyperscalers
Cloud + platform giants; own the compute and the distribution.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 3 of 5 (expanding 3 · hedging 2) 5 members →
- Capital · available
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · in
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Capital · out
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Optionality
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
- Gravity
- across 5 members — open each for the figure + sources 5 members →
What's new this week
- Opus 5 reception: ARC-AGI-3 record, 42/42 on IMO-class tasks, default on Max, live on Bedrock — and added to Microsoft 365 Copilot (Microsoft hedging in both directions at once). (Tech Times)
- ⟨critic⟩ Microsoft launched MAI-Cyber-1-Flash + "Project Perception" — its first vertical MAI model (cyber workflows) and an agentic security platform; a direct run at Anthropic/Google/OpenAI in the security vertical. (TechCrunch)
- ChatGPT Health went GA for all US adults, tied to Apple Health (TechCrunch 07-23; late-fold into the meta-thread).
- CoreWeave −30% on the month; Flow Traders signed as a customer; exec 10b5-1 selling routine, not alarming.
- The Q2 lobbying wave, from the LDA register directly: OpenAI's 2nd-Quarter amendment posted 07-23 — $1.2M own-firm spend — atop its 07-20/21 reports; Microsoft's quarter posted via at least four outside registrants (Hollier $30k · Harbinger $60k · Elevate $60k · Michael Best $50k). 110 filings buffered from watched names.
- FEC monthlies (F3X, through 06-30) filed 07-20: Oracle PAC · Micron PAC · Highmark PAC · BlackRock PAC — routine, on file.
Members 7
capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …
- opt
- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
- grav
- ~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …
Pouring capital into the buildout — raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–205B and flagged "significantly more" for 2027 (the market punished …
capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
- grav
- ~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …
Hedging concretely now: Copilot began swapping in-house MAI models in place of OpenAI/Anthropic for everyday tasks (cost-driven, 07-24), …
capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …
- opt
- mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
- grav
- ~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …
Runs the landlord model on purpose: the AGI-team cuts and the ~$200B capex plan are one strategy — retreat from frontier research, build for …
capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
- grav
- ~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …
Formalized the off-balance-sheet capex template on earnings eve: a second 80/20 JV with BlackRock ($14B, El Paso, 07-28) + a completed …
- opt
- free
→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01
Still the free-but-idle vault (≈$0 net thrust, ~$94B/yr returned) — but the memory squeeze is biting: the Micron fight (thin) and DRAM costs …
capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …
- opt
- constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
- grav
- ~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + reported …
A capital-and-infrastructure play — its Stargate stake and OCI put it inside the biggest AI buildout, financed partly through the $35B …
- opt
- constrained
The purest neocloud wager: $99.4B backlog (OpenAI, Meta $21B-to-2032, Jane Street) against $2.08B quarterly revenue and a $740M loss — …