The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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sector

Infrastructure

The silicon everything else runs on.

The metrics — aggregated from members; click for the breakdown

Posture
expanding — 8 of 12 (expanding 8 · hedging 2 · retrenching 1 · consolidating 1) 2 members →
Capital · available
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · operating
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · deployed
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · in
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · out
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Optionality
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Gravity
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →

Foundries 4

1 thread

capital ~$200B+ commandable/12mo (~$119B cash+mkt-securities Jun-2026 + ~$89B/yr operating cash flow, self-funded; + …

opt
mixed — FCF-free but a rising slice locked to the forced …
grav
~$150B/yr GROSS foundry revenue atop multi-trillion …

Absorbed a 7.1 earthquake at Kumamoto (JASM) — evacuated and resumed same day, stock −3.6% (07-28) — while the capacity race holds; the …

1 thread

capital ~$150B+ commandable/12mo ($98B cash Mar-2026 group + ~$50-60B/yr operating cash flow)

opt
constrained — chaebol Lee-family control; HBM-vs-foundry …
grav
~$220.7B/yr GROSS group revenue; foundry slice small …

Chasing a lead it's never had: UBS projects it overtaking SK Hynix on HBM bit-share in 2027 (41% vs 39%) — its first ever — while still …

us 2 threads

capital ~$45B/12mo but consumed ($29.7B cash+STI + ~$14.9B/yr operating cash flow eaten by capex, net -$11.2B TTM); US …

opt
locked/constrained — turnaround (24k layoffs, DE/PL fabs …
grav
~$53B/yr GROSS revenue; external foundry gravity tiny, …

Propped upright by stakeholders with strategic, not financial, motives — but Q2 (07-23) printed its best quarter in ~15 years (+25% rev, EPS …

gulf

capital ~$5B/12mo organic ($3B cash + ~$1.9B/yr operating cash flow; + CHIPS $1.5B + $375M quantum + Mubadala parent); …

opt
mixed — self-funded but Mubadala 82% directs
grav
~$6.84B/yr GROSS — specialty/mature nodes for …

Mubadala controls 82% — specialty/mature-node foundry, trusted supplier to auto/defense/RF.

Chips 9

Jensen Huang expanding us 7 threads

capital ~$200-300B commandable/12mo (liquid $80.6B Apr-2026 + ~$119B/yr FCF + near-zero net debt); market cap ~$5T is a …

opt
free — no fiduciary mandate, near-zero leverage; ~$30B …
grav
~$1.0T/yr GROSS orbiting AI-infra (Nvidia DC run-rate + the …

Became the buildout's lender of last resort — the figures now resolved as three: $250B guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio site ($500B total project …

us 3 threads

capital ~$50-60B commandable/12mo ($19.6B cash + ~$33B/yr FCF) but net debt ~-$45B (VMware) pre-commits much of it; …

opt
mixed-to-constrained — free cash earmarked to deleveraging …
grav
~$63.9B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue — hyperscaler custom-AI ASICs …

Collecting rent on the buildout from both directions — and the second toll just turned adversarial. The custom-ASIC book widened to FIVE …

1 thread

capital ~$70B commandable/12mo ($39B cash+STI + ~$30B/yr FCF); market cap ~$930B is a separate label

opt
mixed — capex-cyclical; SK chaebol control
grav
~$70-80B/yr GROSS direct (the HBM the whole buildout needs; …

The incumbent under the sharpest shock in the trio: ~55% HBM share, first through Nvidia's HBM4 qualification (reportedly 60-70% of Vera …

us 2 threads

capital ~$50-55B commandable/12mo ($26B cash+STI + ~$26B/yr FCF, net cash $24B); market cap $1.04T is a separate label

opt
mixed — FCF earmarked to US megafabs + CHIPS
grav
~22% of DRAM revenue GROSS across DC+AI+PC+auto (DRAM/NAND); …

The #3, most whiplashed by Nvidia's favor — excluded from early Vera Rubin HBM4 slots in February, reinstated by June, HBM4 now in high- …

china 2 threads

capital state-backed IPO ~$8.5-9.8B fresh + Big Fund; market cap ~$85B is the mark (separate label)

opt
locked — state-directed (36.29% state pre-IPO, …
grav
~7.6% of DRAM revenue GROSS — China's domestic memory …

Just became the symbol: listed 07-27 on STAR at +466% to ~$489B — the most valuable China-listed company, past Intel's market cap — with …

us

capital ~$25-35B commandable/12mo ($12.35B cash + ~$8.6B/yr FCF, net cash $8.5B); market cap $851B is a separate label

opt
mostly free — net cash; self-earmarked to AI-GPU R&D + …
grav
GROSS — x86 server + PC + DC-GPU on AMD silicon (AMD-claimed …

The credible #2 AI-GPU challenger; net-cash and mostly free to deploy.

us 2 threads

capital ~$25-30B commandable/12mo ($9.8B cash + ~$12.5B/yr FCF); market cap $176B is a separate label

opt
mostly free
grav
GROSS — premium-Android ecosystem (Snapdragon; ~39% …

The RISC-V hedge cooled into something bigger: the same June Investor Day that buried the Tenstorrent talks (CEO denial within two weeks) …

eu

capital ~$60B total assets (€54.7B, Jun-2026); market cap is a separate label

opt
free — strong balance sheet, little encumbrance
grav
GROSS — sole EUV supplier; no leading-edge chip is made …

The EUV monopoly — the tightest chokepoint on the board; rentier with an emerging AI-stakes tilt (Mistral 11%).

us 1 thread

capital ~$5B/12mo ($3.6B cash + ~$1B/yr FCF) — TINY vs its gravity; market cap $278B is a separate label

opt
constrained — 87.1% SoftBank-controlled
grav
GROSS — ISA under ~99% of smartphones + DC (Grace/Graviton) …

No longer a pure rentier: shipped its first in-house chip in 35 years (the 'AGI CPU,' Mar-26, Meta launch customer) — now competing with its …

Vocabulary