The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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sector

Infrastructure

The silicon everything else runs on.

The metrics — aggregated from members; click for the breakdown

Posture
expanding — 8 of 12 (expanding 8 · hedging 2 · retrenching 1 · consolidating 1) 2 members →
Capital · available
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · operating
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · deployed
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · in
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Capital · out
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Optionality
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Gravity
across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →

Foundries 4

2 threads

capital ~$200B+ commandable/12mo (~$119B cash+mkt-securities Jun-2026 + ~$89B/yr operating cash flow, self-funded; + …

opt
mixed — FCF-free but a rising slice locked to the forced …
grav
~$150B/yr GROSS foundry revenue atop multi-trillion …

New 08-25 (late catch, 08-24 event): TSMC is the fab behind Xiaomi's new in-house 3nm flagship SoC. Xiaomi launched the Xring/Xuanjie O3 — …

2 threads

capital ~$150B+ commandable/12mo ($98B cash Mar-2026 group + ~$50-60B/yr operating cash flow)

opt
constrained — chaebol Lee-family control; HBM-vs-foundry …
grav
~$220.7B/yr GROSS group revenue; foundry slice small …

New 08-23: unveiled zHBM at Hot Chips 2026 day two — memory stacked directly atop the compute die, claiming 230% more bandwidth and 70% …

us 4 threads

capital ~$45B/12mo but consumed ($29.7B cash+STI + ~$14.9B/yr operating cash flow eaten by capex, net -$11.2B TTM); US …

opt
locked/constrained — turnaround (24k layoffs, DE/PL fabs …
grav
~$53B/yr GROSS revenue; external foundry gravity tiny, …

New 08-28: the 14A process posted its first real defect-density and yield data point, filling a gap this map had explicitly named as missing …

gulf 1 thread

capital ~$5B/12mo organic ($3B cash + ~$1.9B/yr operating cash flow; + CHIPS ~$2.175B incl. two new gov-equity stakes …

opt
mixed — self-funded but Mubadala 73% directs
grav
~$6.84B/yr GROSS — specialty/mature nodes for …

Mubadala controls 73% (trimmed from 82%, May 2026) — specialty/mature-node foundry, trusted supplier to auto/defense/RF.

Chips 9

Jensen Huang expanding us 12 threads

capital ~$200-300B commandable/12mo (liquid $80.6B Apr-2026 + ~$119B/yr FCF + near-zero net debt); market cap ~$5T is a …

opt
free — no fiduciary mandate, near-zero leverage; ~$30B …
grav
~$1.0T/yr GROSS orbiting AI-infra (Nvidia DC run-rate + the …

New 09-04: the loop got a filed number. Nvidia's own 10-Q puts its TOTAL EQUITY-INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO at ~$99bn, up from ~$7bn a year ago — a …

us 4 threads

capital ~$50-60B commandable/12mo ($19.6B cash + ~$33B/yr FCF) but net debt ~-$45B (VMware) pre-commits much of it; …

opt
mixed-to-constrained — free cash earmarked to deleveraging …
grav
~$63.9B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue — hyperscaler custom-AI ASICs …

New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): FISCAL Q3 PRINT — revenue $29.6bn (+86%), AI semiconductor revenue $16.7bn (+221%), both beats; Q4 guide $34.8bn …

2 threads

capital ~$70B commandable/12mo ($39B cash+STI + ~$30B/yr FCF); market cap ~$930B is a separate label

opt
mixed — capex-cyclical; SK chaebol control
grav
~$70-80B/yr GROSS direct (the HBM the whole buildout needs; …

New 09-04: deferred again, on its own clock. A Form 6-K filed with the SEC says "no matters have been determined" on a rumored 5-10 trillion …

us 2 threads

capital ~$50-55B commandable/12mo ($26B cash+STI + ~$26B/yr FCF, net cash $24B); market cap $1.04T is a separate label

opt
mixed — FCF earmarked to US megafabs + CHIPS
grav
~22% of DRAM revenue GROSS across DC+AI+PC+auto (DRAM/NAND); …

New 08-23: Micron put a number on the memory wall at Hot Chips 2026 (Stanford, 08-23 to 08-25, day one). Raghu Sreeramaneni's "Evolving …

china 3 threads

capital state-backed IPO ~$8.5-9.8B fresh + Big Fund; market cap ~$524B is the mark (separate label) — corrected …

opt
locked — state-directed (36.29% state pre-IPO, …
grav
~7.6% of DRAM revenue GROSS — China's domestic memory …

New 08-31 PM: began SMALL-BATCH PRODUCTION OF HBM3E, the high-bandwidth memory Nvidia H200/Blackwell-class accelerators are built around, …

expanding us 2 threads

capital ~$25-35B commandable/12mo ($12.35B cash + ~$8.6B/yr FCF, net cash $8.5B); market cap $851B is a separate label

opt
mostly free — net cash; self-earmarked to AI-GPU R&D + …
grav
GROSS — x86 server + PC + DC-GPU on AMD silicon (AMD-claimed …

New 08-29 (cold rotation, caught late): two developments the map missed while the thread was quiet. At Hot Chips on 08-24 AMD disclosed hard …

us 2 threads

capital ~$25-30B commandable/12mo ($9.8B cash + ~$12.5B/yr FCF); market cap $176B is a separate label

opt
mostly free
grav
GROSS — premium-Android ecosystem (Snapdragon; ~39% …

New 08-16: no further movement all week (08-10→08-16) — no Qualcomm-specific development since 08-05 — the only mention across this week's …

expanding eu 2 threads

capital ~$60B total assets (€54.7B, Jun-2026); market cap is a separate label

opt
free — strong balance sheet, little encumbrance
grav
GROSS — sole EUV supplier; no leading-edge chip is made …

The EUV monopoly — the tightest chokepoint on the board; rentier with an emerging AI-stakes tilt (Mistral 11%).

dormant us 1 thread

capital ~$5B/12mo ($3.6B cash + ~$1B/yr FCF) — TINY vs its gravity; market cap $278B is a separate label

opt
constrained — 87.1% SoftBank-controlled
grav
GROSS — ISA under ~99% of smartphones + DC (Grace/Graviton) …

New 08-24: IBM built native Arm support into its next mainframe chip, confirmed from both companies' own newsrooms — a design win in the one …

Vocabulary