The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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pocket

Insurance

Long-duration capital pools; mostly constrained.

The metrics — aggregated from members; click for the breakdown

Posture
expanding — 4 of 7 (expanding 4 · consolidating 3) 7 members →
Capital · available
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Capital · operating
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Capital · deployed
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Capital · in
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Capital · out
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Optionality
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →
Gravity
across 7 members — open each for the figure + sources 7 members →

No tagged moves for this pocket this week.

Members 7

us

capital ~$550B+ investable (cash+T-bills $381.7B + float $171B FY24); market cap ~$1.1T is a separate label

opt
free — Buffett/Abel, no mandate; the largest true dry powder …
grav
~$371B/yr GROSS — not thin (real-economy conglomerate, …

The lone FREE deployer among insurers — largest dry powder; gravity ~= capital, not thin.

eu

capital ~$2.7T AUM commanded (€2.512T, owns PIMCO); own general account ~$810B; market cap ~$184B is a separate label

opt
constrained — Solvency II; ~€1.8T third-party fiduciary
grav
~$202B/yr GROSS + PIMCO bond-market power

Solvency-II-constrained capital pool; owns PIMCO for bond-market reach.

china

capital ~$1.95T group assets (incl. bank); insurance portfolio ~$848B; market cap ~$144B is a separate label

opt
constrained — NFRA C-ROSS + state-steered (Alibaba-style)
grav
~$133B/yr GROSS + 240M-customer tech/health ecosystem

State-steered Chinese insurer with the strongest insurtech-AI angle (240M-customer ecosystem).

china

capital ~$958B assets (pure life general account); market cap ~$169B is a separate label

opt
locked — most state-directed; majority state-owned
grav
~$140B/yr GROSS premium (<< the asset stock)

The most state-directed insurer on the board — majority state-owned life general account.

us

capital PGIM $1.512T AUM + general account ~$450-500B; market cap ~$42B is a separate label (commands ~36x own market …

opt
constrained — RBC; PGIM fiduciary
grav
~$70B/yr GROSS

BlackRock-lite via PGIM — commands ~36x its own market cap; RBC-constrained.

us

capital ~$742B AUM / general account ~$480B via MIM; market cap ~$61B is a separate label

opt
constrained
grav
~$77B/yr GROSS + group-benefits reach

Large constrained life/annuity general account (MIM); broad group-benefits reach.

jp

capital ~$645B assets (mostly general account); no market cap (MUTUAL)

opt
constrained — JGB liability-matching; policyholder-bound
grav
~$40B/yr GROSS + systemic macro-gravity (a top global …

Policyholder-owned Japanese mutual; systemic macro-gravity as a top cross-border bond buyer.

Vocabulary