Meta
What Meta is up to now
Formalized the off-balance-sheet capex template on earnings eve: a second 80/20 JV with BlackRock ($14B, El Paso, 07-28) + a completed $12.5B BlackRock bond — Q2 print 07-29 is the live test of the $135-145B guidance and the AMD 6GW commitment.
as of 2026-07-28
Imperial capex, no vassals — keeps buying legions, has conquered no one. Kingdom, not integrated-power, until it has structural dependents.
The metrics
- Posture med
- hedging 2 src →
- Capital · available high
- ~$81B cash+STI (Q1-2026); ~$46B/yr free post-capex; new ~$87B debt taken on 1 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$116-124B/yr operating cash flow ($115.8B FY25; $124.0B TTM) 1 src →
- Capital · deployed high
- ~$70-76B/yr capex in-flight (FY25 $69.7B -> TTM $75.7B) + up to ~$84B debt earmarked to the AI buildout 2 src →
- Capital · in med
- ~$196B/yr FY25 ad revenue (near-entirely advertising) 1 src →
- Capital · out high
- ~$95B/yr out: ~$76B capex + ~$5B dividends + ~$13B buybacks (TTM); buybacks slowing 1 src →
- Optionality high
- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control keeps governance free, but Meta has taken on ~$84-87B debt for the AI buildout, adding an interest claim it never had before 2 src →
- Gravity med
- GROSS ~$196B/yr FY25 ad revenue — revenue-as-proxy, undeflated per board policy; no advertiser-ecosystem multiplier reconstructed (lower bound); no vassal dependents (Llama open-weight, not … 2 src →
Holdings
Llama
Projects & threads
·
In-House Silicon
resource move
↳ Compute Spend
— open · last seen 2026-07-25
· 8 entries
·
Nvidia's Order Book
capital flow
↳ Compute Spend
— open · last seen 2026-07-26
· 7 entries
◉
Hyperscaler Capex
buildout race
— open · last seen 2026-07-28
· 6 entries
·
Meta Capex
buildout race
↳ Hyperscaler Capex
— developing · last seen 2026-07-28
· 5 entries
◉
Where the Capex Lands
buildout race
— open · last seen
· 2 entries
·
Dragonfly Return
border dispute
— open · last seen 2026-07-28
· 2 entries
·
Meta Gas Pivot
resource move
↳ Power Buildout
— open · last seen 2026-07-27
· 1 entries
Vocabulary