Micron
What Micron is up to now
New 08-23: Micron put a number on the memory wall at Hot Chips 2026 (Stanford, 08-23 to 08-25, day one). Raghu Sreeramaneni's "Evolving Memory Architectures for AI" argues compute is scaling roughly 3x every two years while HBM bandwidth scales only about 2x — so the gap is WIDENING, not closing. Read against the previous day's capex story, this is the technical floor under it: Nvidia blamed DRAM and HBM costs for a >15% AI-server price rise on 08-22, and Micron's own framing says that constraint is structural rather than a cycle to wait out. Micron remains one of three companies that now set the price of AI capex and that this map still cannot tag on a bullet — its entity add has been proposed and held since 08-22. (Conference coverage, not a Micron release; the date is confirmed against Hot Chips' published schedule.) New 08-16: no further movement — a genuinely thin Sunday map-wide (no `/daily` ran; reconstructed from a backfilled sweep), no Micron-specific mention in any lens. Standing picture below holds unchanged since 08-14. New 08-14: a US judge dismissed YMTC's Lanham Act suit against Micron and PR firm DCI Group over 2021-22 "China Tech Threat" messaging that linked YMTC's chips to military espionage — the court ruled the statements were protected political speech about China-tech national- security risk, not commercial false advertising, without ruling on whether the underlying espionage claims were true. The two remain locked in a separate 3D NAND patent-infringement fight running since Nov 2023; only the defamation-style claim closed. Micron also ran +6% intraday 08-13 on the same memory-demand optimism lifting SK Hynix and SanDisk — price action, not a structural change. Standing picture (recorded 08-05) holds: the fully-booked 2027 DRAM market (Micron/Samsung/SK Hynix taking only 60-70% of requested customer volume against advance deposits) is the mechanism behind CXMT's failed bid to qualify as a fourth Apple supplier; Micron itself was reinstated into Vera Rubin's early HBM4 slots by June after February's exclusion, posted the trio's best print (Q3 FY26: $41.5B revenue, 84.6% gross margin, guiding $50B), and is funding a $200B US buildout (NY megafab, Idaho, $6.1B CHIPS) as the only US-based DRAM maker.
as of 2026-08-23
The metrics
- Posture med
- expanding 1 src →
- Capital · available high
- ~$26.0B cash+STI (Q3 FY26, ended May 28 2026; cash $25.0B + ST inv $1.0B); net cash ~$19.6B (total debt $6.4B) 1 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$51.4B/yr operating cash flow (TTM); ~$26.2B/yr FCF (TTM) — vs only $1.7B FCF FY25 (capex-heavy) 1 src →
- Capital · deployed high
- TTM capex ~$25.3B (Idaho/NY megafabs + HBM); buybacks ~$1.4B TTM; dividend ~$0.57B/yr 1 src →
- Capital · in high
- FY2025 revenue $37.4B; TTM revenue $90.3B (HBM-driven surge, +142% YoY); TTM net income $50.5B 1 src →
- Capital · out high
- capex ~$25B/yr (US megafabs, CHIPS-supported) + small dividend + modest buybacks 1 src →
- Optionality high
- mixed — net cash and huge FCF, but a rising slice earmarked to US megafabs + CHIPS commitments; capex-cyclical 1 src →
- Gravity med
- ~22% of global DRAM revenue GROSS across DC+AI+PC+auto; HBM #3 and the only US DRAM maker — a memory-chokepoint flank feeding the AI buildout 2 src →
This week — what changed
- Nvidia opened higher while the broad market opened lower, which is the first real evidence on what Friday's selloff was actually about. NVDA opened around $219, up roughly 0.3–0.7% from Friday's $217.55 close, while the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,677, the Dow 0.62% to 53,229 and the Nasdaq 0.43% to 26,290, on the Larak/Jordan/UAE exchange plus continued rate-hike repricing. This thread has carried two competing explanations for Friday's 4.74% Nvidia session — the vendor-financing pullback, or the hawkish Fed repricing. If financing were still the dominant driver, Nvidia would be expected to keep lagging; instead it is the outperformer against a macro-driven dip. ⚠️ One premarket and early session is not conclusive, and Micron, Intel and Broadcom are described in same-day coverage as choppy rather than clean movers either way. (CNBC, Yahoo Finance)
Projects & threads
Full item history for Micron →
