Microsoft

What Microsoft is up to now

Hedging concretely now: Copilot began swapping in-house MAI models in place of OpenAI/Anthropic for everyday tasks (cost-driven, 07-24), while lobbying with Nvidia/Meta against open-weight restrictions. Q2 earnings 07-29 is its capex verdict (the '$37B AI run-rate' test). The $250B Azure commitment from OpenAI still binds the relationship it's decoupling from — buyer and hedger at once. Destination traced 07-27: the WI+GA ~2GW 'superfactory' + Pecos TX ~2GW on Chevron gas; Maia 200 serves both OpenAI and MAI — the split undisclosed, like everyone's.

as of 2026-07-27

Held by Satya Nadella

Posture hedging

Sphere us

Pocket Hyperscalers

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med: hedging 2 src →
Capital · available high: ~$78.3B cash+STI (Mar-2026); ~$250B+ commandable/12mo incl. AAA debt access 3 src →
Capital · operating high: ~$170B/yr operating cash flow (TTM ended Mar-2026) 1 src →
Capital · deployed high: ~$97-107B/yr capex in-flight + $250B Azure/OpenAI compute earmarked 2 src →
Capital · in high: ~$318B TTM revenue (FY26 pace); Azure/cloud the growth engine 1 src →
Capital · out high: ~$145B/yr out: ~$97B capex + ~$26B dividends + ~$22B buybacks (TTM) 1 src →
Optionality high: mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising majority self-earmarked to the AI buildout (capex ~$107B/yr, up from $64.6B FY25) + ~$26B/yr dividend 2 src →
Gravity high: GROSS ~$3.0T/yr reconstructed ecosystem (the popular '$4T economy': TTM rev $318B x IDC partner multiplier) — undeflated per board policy 2 src →

Holdings

MaiAzureCopilotOpenai stake

Dependents

Microsoft MAI

This week — what changed

Opus 5 reception: ARC-AGI-3 record, 42/42 on IMO-class tasks, default on Max, live on Bedrock — and added to Microsoft 365 Copilot (Microsoft hedging in both directions at once). (Tech Times) 2026-07-27
⟨critic⟩ Microsoft launched MAI-Cyber-1-Flash + "Project Perception" — its first vertical MAI model (cyber workflows) and an agentic security platform; a direct run at Anthropic/Google/OpenAI in the security vertical. (TechCrunch) 2026-07-27
The Q2 lobbying wave, from the LDA register directly: OpenAI's 2nd-Quarter amendment posted 07-23 — $1.2M own-firm spend — atop its 07-20/21 reports; Microsoft's quarter posted via at least four outside registrants (Hollier $30k · Harbinger $60k · Elevate $60k · Michael Best $50k). 110 filings buffered from watched names. 2026-07-28

Projects & threads

· In-House Silicon resource move ↳ Compute Spend — open · last seen 2026-07-25 · 8 entries

· Nuclear for AI resource move ↳ Power Buildout — open · last seen 2026-07-25 · 7 entries

· Microsoft Health partnership ↳ Big Tech into Health — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 7 entries

· Memory Squeeze scarcity — developing · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries

◉ Hyperscaler Capex buildout race — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries

· Microsoft's Hedge hedge — developing · last seen 2026-07-27 · 4 entries

◉ Compute Spend resource move ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen · 3 entries

◉ Power Buildout resource move ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen · 3 entries

◉ Big Tech into Health partnership — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 3 entries

· Microsoft Capex buildout race ↳ Hyperscaler Capex — developing · last seen 2026-07-27 · 2 entries

· Dragonfly Return border dispute — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 2 entries

Full item history for Microsoft →

Vocabulary