What Microsoft is up to now

New 10-01: MORE IN-HOUSE MODELS. Microsoft AI launched MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming, its first real-time transcription model, plus MAI-Voice-2.1 and a faster Flash variant; GitHub put Copilot computer use into public preview. New 09-25: COPILOT REBUILT, AND A MODEL-WELFARE ARGUMENT. Microsoft unveiled a redesigned Copilot app with Home, Code and Autopilot tabs (Microsoft's blog, 09-25). Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman published 'A warning about model welfare' on 09-16, arguing AI models should not be treated as having rights or feelings, against Anthropic's Claude Constitution. New 09-23: MORE THAN $10BN FOR THE GULF. Brad Smith told Reuters Microsoft will invest more than $10bn in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait through 2030, plus more than $400m in regional connectivity, and that the spending is accelerating despite the Iran war. Microsoft is also a founding member of the Gates Foundation's language-AI coalition. New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): 8-K at 16:30 ET — from FY27 Microsoft reports TWO segments, "Agents and Infra" and "Devices and Consumer," replacing the three-segment structure, with quarterly revenue disclosed per key business (Azure in dollars for the first time, per Reuters); historicals restated, FY27 Q1 outlook adjusted. Nadella: AI is "blurring the boundaries between our products and reshaping our business models." The capex-to-revenue question becomes answerable at the Azure line. Also 09-03: Astra ships on Azure at launch; Claude Fable 5.1 on Microsoft Foundry since 09-01. Standing picture below holds. New 08-13: two developments, both about where Microsoft draws its own lines. A Reuters exclusive reports Microsoft has closed at least 15 branch offices and joint ventures in mainland China over the past five years, retreating under geopolitical tension, Chinese tech policy and domestic competition — but staying rather than fully exiting, because servicing Chinese multinationals like ByteDance (which need Western cloud/AI tools for overseas operations) remains profitable and a China presence preserves access to local engineering talent. US export controls and Beijing's post-2017 domestic-software push are named as the binding constraints on scaling further — a structural read on how far a hyperscaler retreats from China without leaving outright, and a contrast to Apple's opposite move the next day (going deeper into China with a local Alibaba-built model). Same day, Microsoft said it's merging its consumer and business Copilot apps and cutting features that didn't work — a consolidation move on the product side while the Maia in-house- silicon story (300,000+ units reportedly in talks with TSMC, due ~09-30) sits unchanged since 08-10. No further movement since 08-10 on the Maia 300 volume-order report or the Assuta Medical Centers health deal; both stand as logged. Standing picture: FY26 Q4 (07-29) beat on revenue ($90.0B, +18%) and EPS ($4.81, +32%), Azure accelerated to 43% constant-currency, but ~$3.2B of the EPS gain was an unrealized mark-to-market gain on its Anthropic stake (vs. its OpenAI stake marked DOWN ~$600M the same quarter) — the real operating beat is smaller than the headline. The OpenAI-vs-own-capex split still undisclosed; FY27 capex guidance stayed qualitative ("will grow year-over-year," next quarter "over $50B"). Copilot keeps swapping in-house MAI models in for OpenAI/Anthropic on cost grounds while lobbying with Nvidia/Meta against open-weight restrictions — buyer and hedger at once. Destination traced 07-27: the WI+GA ~2GW "superfactory" + Pecos TX ~2GW on Chevron gas; Maia 200 serves both OpenAI and MAI, split undisclosed.

as of 2026-10-02