The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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Moonshot AI

What Moonshot AI is up to now

Shipped Kimi K3 open weights a day early (07-26) — billed the largest open-weight model ever — while named by the White House in a distillation accusation with sanctions floated (Bessent). Running at a $50B pre-IPO valuation toward an HKEX listing. The distillation fight and the open-weights fault line now run straight through it.

as of 2026-07-27

Sphere china

Tight China-state fusion is the analytical point, not a reason to reclassify. House not yet named.

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture high
expanding 6 src →
Capital · available med
~$4B cumulative disclosed raised (self-summed: $60M seed + $1B Feb-2024 Alibaba-led + $300M Aug-2024 Tencent/Gaorong + $600M Oct-2025 IDG-led + $2B May-2026 Meituan-led); current valuation … 9 src →
Capital · operating med
no clean revenue/ARR figure disclosed; emerging monetization via subscription tiers (Moderato/Allegro/Allegretto/Vivace) and a new token-revenue-sharing deal with Chinasoft International … 3 src →
Capital · deployed med
compute buildout scale not itself disclosed in $ terms; observable via strain (K3 subscription pause on capacity) and via the disputed GB300 allegation, not a confirmed capex figure 2 src →
Capital · in high
VC + Chinese strategic-tech-platform rounds (Alibaba, Tencent/Gaorong, IDG Capital, Meituan, HongShan) escalating toward a Hong Kong IPO raise 4 src →
Capital · out low
compute buildout to meet K3 demand + subsidized/rate-limited free-tier access; no disclosed capex or training-cost figure (contrast DeepSeek's disclosed ~$5.6M V3 run — Moonshot has not … 1 src →
Optionality high
mixed-to-constrained — founder-controlled (Yang Zhilin, Tsinghua co-founders) but with heavy Chinese strategic-platform ownership (Alibaba's 36% stake at the Feb-2024 round, since diluted; … 5 src →
Gravity med
no clean $ figure — proxy via Kimi K3 launch wiping an estimated $3.3T off global chip-stock market cap (Jul-2026, echoing DeepSeek's Jan-2025 Nvidia hit), 36M+ MAU (Oct-2024), Kimi K2 as … 4 src →

Holdings

Kimi

This week — what changed

Projects & threads

· China's Stack border dispute — open · last seen 2026-07-26 · 10 entries
· Distillation Fight legitimacy dispute — open · last seen 2026-07-27 · 4 entries

Full item history for Moonshot AI →

Vocabulary