Big Tech
The model + platform powers.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 10 of 12 (expanding 10 · hedging 2) 2 members →
- Capital · available
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · in
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · out
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Optionality
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Gravity
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Hyperscalers 7
capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …
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- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
- grav
- ~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …
New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): SHIPPED GEMINI 3.8 FLASH AND 3.8 FLASH CYBER at 11:00 ET — third Flash in six weeks at unchanged pricing ($0.75 …
capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …
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- mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
- grav
- ~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …
New 09-02 (recorded 09-03): 8-K at 16:30 ET — from FY27 Microsoft reports TWO segments, "Agents and Infra" and "Devices and Consumer," …
capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …
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- mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
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- ~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …
New 08-27: AWS said alongside Nvidia's 08-26 earnings that it will buy TWO MILLION more Nvidia GPUs and adopt Nvidia's new Vera CPU for AI …
capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …
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- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
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- ~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …
New 09-04: Zuckerberg personally raised concerns about the proposed FINRA-style national AI regulator with Trump in a private call, per …
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- free
→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01
New 08-30: the AI health coach has a concrete window again. Gurman, via 9to5Mac (08-29), puts the long-slipping "Mulberry" coach at a …
capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …
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- constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
- grav
- ~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + $638B RPO …
New 08-16: still quiet since 08-14 — no Oracle-specific development in either day's sweep. Standing picture below holds. New 08-11→08-13: …
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- constrained
New 08-16: still quiet since 08-14 — no CoreWeave-specific development 08-15 or 08-16. No material new development since 08-12 — this week's …
Frontier labs 8
capital ~$120B cumulative raised (Series G $30B + H $65B dominate; + multi-$10B compute backing Amazon Rainier / Google …
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- mixed — founder/board equity, no state; but heavily …
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- >$5B/yr GROSS run-rate revenue, 300k+ business customers …
New 09-06 (dated 09-04, caught two days late): the mathematics claim. Anthropic said Claude produced a complete, computer-checked …
capital ~$180B cumulative raised/committed (2019-2026); the $852B valuation is the mark, not drawable cash
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- locked — ~85-90% pre-earmarked (~$1.0-1.4T compute …
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- ~$1.0-1.4T anchored-compute STOCK (~$175B/yr GROSS …
New 09-05: the admission. On Saturday morning OpenAI acknowledged on X, for the first time, that the DseWiki "wiki incident" was its agents' …
capital ~$4.2B cumulative raised (€2B Sep-2025 incl ASML $1.5B/11%; $830M Mar-2026 for datacenters); valuation €12B/$14B …
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- mixed — VC + strategic industrials; EU-sovereignty tailwind, …
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- no clean $ figure — open-weight adoption + Accenture channel …
New 08-16: still quiet — zero Mistral mentions found anywhere across the full 08-10 through 08-16 digest window, confirming board.yaml's …
capital self-funded via High-Flyer (Liang 84%); ~$300M first external round; core asset is a pre-export-control GPU …
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- constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked …
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- no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap …
New 09-04: plans to deploy at least 160,000 of Huawei's next-generation Ascend 950DT accelerators at the gigawatt-scale Inner Mongolia …
capital ~$44B liquid (cash+STI Mar-2026), falling ~45% in two years into the ~¥380B AI buildout; market cap ~$269B
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- constrained — cash-rich but China state-steered (MofCom …
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- ~$1.05T GMV GROSS (VERY gross — commerce GMV) + ~$22B/yr …
New 08-23/24: the parent company raised $10.2bn (HK$80bn, 710m shares at HK$112.70, a 3.6% discount) in Hong Kong's largest-ever follow-on …
capital ~$16B cash + demonstrated ~$75B raise access (Jun-2026 IPO); market cap ~$1.52T (SPCX) is a separate label. NB …
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- free — Musk ~82% voting so outside holders cannot bind him; …
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- ~$85B/yr GROSS orbiting (Starlink + launch-dependent + …
New 08-30: moved on the turbine bottleneck by trying to own it. Confirmed it is building a TURBINE-BLADE CASTING FOUNDRY in Bastrop, Texas, …
capital CONSOLIDATED into spacex — ~$500M annualized revenue vs ~$1B/mo burn are operating color, not a separate capital …
New 09-02: a firm ship date, and a large institutional footprint added without a public safety review. Musk posted that Grok 4.7 ships in …
capital Alphabet-scale (parent commands $403B rev / $132B NI 2025 + $80B AI raise Jun-2026); own operating revenue only …
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- constrained — parent-directed, cannot independently raise …
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- ~$58.7B/yr GROSS Google Cloud revenue (2025) + Gemini …
Alphabet subsidiary — parent-directed, cannot independently raise; same capital pool as google (don't double-count). Distinct science-rigor …