Big Tech
The model + platform powers.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 10 of 12 (expanding 10 · hedging 2) 2 members →
- Capital · available
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · deployed
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- Capital · in
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- Capital · out
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- Optionality
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Gravity
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Hyperscalers 7
capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …
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- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
- grav
- ~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …
New 10-01: SUNCATCHER IN ORBIT. Google said it confirmed contact with its first Project Suncatcher prototype, carrying four TPUs, after the …
capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …
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- mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
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- ~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …
New 10-01: MORE IN-HOUSE MODELS. Microsoft AI launched MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming, its first real-time transcription model, plus …
capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …
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- mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
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- ~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …
New 09-30 to 10-02: CHIPS OFF THE BALANCE SHEET, POWER AND A COMMUNITY PLEDGE. The FT reported Amazon is exploring moving about $8bn of …
capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …
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- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
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- ~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …
New 10-02/03: OPENING MUSE TO HARDWARE, AND TO MATH. Meta released Muse Gadgets, open-source firmware and a Linux SDK for building …
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- free
→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01
New 10-02: TIGHTENING WHAT AGENTS CAN READ. Apple said it will add controls around macOS 'Full Disk Access', requiring 'very explicit user …
capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …
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- constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
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- ~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + $638B RPO …
New 09-30: Tencent leased about 100,000 advanced AI chips from Oracle in a five-year deal worth about $7bn, the Financial Times reported. …
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- constrained
New 09-22/23: CONVERTIBLE CLOSED, ANALYSTS SPLIT. CoreWeave closed its upsized $4.2bn 2.875% convertible due 2033 (option exercised in full, …
Frontier labs 8
capital ~$120B cumulative raised (Series G $30B + H $65B dominate; + multi-$10B compute backing Amazon Rainier / Google …
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- mixed — founder/board equity, no state; but heavily …
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- >$5B/yr GROSS run-rate revenue, 300k+ business customers …
New 10-02 (afternoon): A $100M TRAINING PUSH. Anthropic launched Claude Frontier Academy, committing $100 million to train 10,000 'Frontier …
capital ~$180B cumulative raised/committed (2019-2026); the $852B valuation is the mark, not drawable cash
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- locked — ~85-90% pre-earmarked (~$1.0-1.4T compute …
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- ~$1.0-1.4T anchored-compute STOCK (~$175B/yr GROSS …
New 10-02/03: SAFETY STAFF EXITS, MORE AGENT DISCLOSURES. David Robinson, who led the writing of OpenAI's safety reports, resigned (Business …
capital ~$4.2B cumulative raised (€2B Sep-2025 incl ASML $1.5B/11%; $830M Mar-2026 for datacenters); valuation €12B/$14B …
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- mixed — VC + strategic industrials; EU-sovereignty tailwind, …
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- no clean $ figure — open-weight adoption + Accenture channel …
New 09-29: CEO Arthur Mensch called the US AI-safety debate "a cover for the negligence of some" and said Mistral will not slow down (CNBC). …
capital self-funded via High-Flyer (Liang 84%); ~$300M first external round; core asset is a pre-export-control GPU …
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- constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked …
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- no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap …
New 09-24: REVENUE AND A RAISE. The Information (via Reuters, 09-24) reported DeepSeek's annualised revenue run rate at about $1bn, more …
capital ~$44B liquid (cash+STI Mar-2026), falling ~45% in two years into the ~¥380B AI buildout; market cap ~$269B
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- constrained — cash-rich but China state-steered (MofCom …
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- ~$1.05T GMV GROSS (VERY gross — commerce GMV) + ~$22B/yr …
New 09-22/23: Alibaba unveiled the Zhenwu V900 chip (three times the M890, clusters of up to 500,000), Qwen 4 in training and a 20GW …
capital ~$16B cash + demonstrated ~$75B raise access (Jun-2026 IPO); market cap ~$1.52T (SPCX) is a separate label. NB …
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- free — Musk ~82% voting so outside holders cannot bind him; …
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- ~$85B/yr GROSS orbiting (Starlink + launch-dependent + …
New 09-28: SpaceXAI launched Team Bots (shared Grok Bots); the NYC Council subpoenaed Elon Musk / SpaceXAI to testify at its 10-05 AI-safety …
capital CONSOLIDATED into spacex — ~$500M annualized revenue vs ~$1B/mo burn are operating color, not a separate capital …
New 09-25: COLOSSUS 2 DOUBLING. Musk said early on 09-25 that SpaceXAI's Colossus 2 in Memphis will add 220,000 Nvidia GB300s next week and …
capital Alphabet-scale (parent commands $403B rev / $132B NI 2025 + $80B AI raise Jun-2026); own operating revenue only …
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- constrained — parent-directed, cannot independently raise …
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- ~$58.7B/yr GROSS Google Cloud revenue (2025) + Gemini …
Alphabet subsidiary — parent-directed, cannot independently raise; same capital pool as google (don't double-count). Distinct science-rigor …