Big Tech
The model + platform powers.
The metrics
- Posture
- expanding — 10 of 12 (expanding 10 · hedging 2) 2 members →
- Capital · available
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · operating
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · deployed
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · in
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Capital · out
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Optionality
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
- Gravity
- across 2 members — open each for the figure + sources 2 members →
Hyperscalers 7
capital ~$292B commandable/12mo ($126.8B cash+STI Dec-2025 + ~$164.7B/yr operating cash flow, low leverage); market cap …
- opt
- free-leaning-mixed — dual-class founder control keeps it …
- grav
- ~$402.8B/yr GROSS FY25 revenue ecosystem (ads ~$315B + Cloud …
Pouring capital into the buildout — raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–205B and flagged "significantly more" for 2027 (the market punished …
capital ~$250B+ commandable/12mo (cash+STI $78B Mar-2026 + ~$170B/yr operating cash flow + AAA debt access); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — legally free discretionary treasury, but a rising …
- grav
- ~$3.0T/yr GROSS ecosystem (reconstructed: TTM rev $318B x …
Hedging concretely now: Copilot began swapping in-house MAI models in place of OpenAI/Anthropic for everyday tasks (cost-driven, 07-24), …
capital ~$263B commandable/12mo ($123B cash+STI + ~$139.5B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF only $7.7B); market cap …
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- mixed/constrained — governance free (single-class) but …
- grav
- ~$716.9B/yr GROSS net sales (AWS $137B; 3P GMV ~$700B+ vs …
Runs the landlord model on purpose: the AGI-team cuts and the ~$200B capex plan are one strategy — retreat from frontier research, build for …
capital ~$197B commandable/12mo ($81.6B cash+STI + ~$115.8B/yr operating cash flow, ~$46B free post-capex); market cap …
- opt
- mixed — Zuckerberg dual-class control (free) but taking on …
- grav
- ~$196.2B/yr GROSS FY25 ad revenue; VA-deflation DEFERRED per …
Formalized the off-balance-sheet capex template on earnings eve: a second 80/20 JV with BlackRock ($14B, El Paso, 07-28) + a completed …
- opt
- free
→ John Ternus eff. 2026-09-01
Still the free-but-idle vault (≈$0 net thrust, ~$94B/yr returned) — but the memory squeeze is biting: the Micron fight (thin) and DRAM costs …
capital ~$64B commandable/12mo ($31.9B cash+STI May-2026 + ~$32B/yr operating cash flow, but FCF -$23.7B, debt $156B …
- opt
- constrained/locked — negative FCF, high leverage, cash …
- grav
- ~$67.4B/yr GROSS FY26 revenue (Cloud $34B) + reported …
A capital-and-infrastructure play — its Stargate stake and OCI put it inside the biggest AI buildout, financed partly through the $35B …
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- constrained
The purest neocloud wager: $99.4B backlog (OpenAI, Meta $21B-to-2032, Jane Street) against $2.08B quarterly revenue and a $740M loss — …
Frontier labs 8
capital ~$120B cumulative raised (Series G $30B + H $65B dominate; + multi-$10B compute backing Amazon Rainier / Google …
- opt
- mixed — founder/board equity, no state; but heavily …
- grav
- >$5B/yr GROSS run-rate revenue, 300k+ business customers …
Shipped Claude Opus 5 (07-24, same price as 4.8, SOTA coding/agentic, 'most aligned to date') and reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO …
capital ~$180B cumulative raised/committed (2019-2026); the $852B valuation is the mark, not drawable cash
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- locked — ~85-90% pre-earmarked (~$1.0-1.4T compute …
- grav
- ~$1.0-1.4T anchored-compute STOCK (~$175B/yr GROSS …
Raising and committing at a scale that now needs its chip vendor as guarantor — Nvidia in talks to backstop $250-500B of financing for the …
capital ~$4.2B cumulative raised (€2B Sep-2025 incl ASML $1.5B/11%; $830M Mar-2026 for datacenters); valuation €12B/$14B …
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- mixed — VC + strategic industrials; EU-sovereignty tailwind, …
- grav
- no clean $ figure — open-weight adoption + Accenture channel …
Barely tracked — the French national champion under state patronage, but we hold no thread on what it's shipping or raising right now. A …
capital self-funded via High-Flyer (Liang 84%); ~$300M first external round; core asset is a pre-export-control GPU …
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- constrained — founder-controlled but compute export-locked …
- grav
- no clean $ figure — heavy open-weight adoption + ultra-cheap …
V4 shipped (open weights); reportedly weighing a $71B raise and a 2026 IPO. Part of China's full-stack decoupling, moving as a bloc with the …
capital ~$44B liquid (cash+STI Mar-2026), falling ~45% in two years into the ~¥380B AI buildout; market cap ~$269B
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- constrained — cash-rich but China state-steered (MofCom …
- grav
- ~$1.05T GMV GROSS (VERY gross — commerce GMV) + ~$22B/yr …
Previewed Qwen3.8-Max (2.4T params) and open-sourced the Zhenwu chip stack aimed squarely at CUDA — the "decouple the whole stack" play, …
capital ~$16B cash + demonstrated ~$75B raise access (Jun-2026 IPO); market cap ~$1.52T (SPCX) is a separate label. NB …
- opt
- free — Musk ~82% voting so outside holders cannot bind him; …
- grav
- ~$85B/yr GROSS orbiting (Starlink + launch-dependent + …
Six weeks into life as Nasdaq:SPCX (priced 06-11 at $135/sh, $1.77T — the largest IPO ever, $75B raised) the market verdict is harsh: fresh …
capital CONSOLIDATED into spacex — ~$500M annualized revenue vs ~$1B/mo burn are operating color, not a separate capital …
An L2 subnode of SpaceX now, not a company: reportedly dissolved as a separate legal entity and folded into SpaceXAI (07-06) — the identity …
capital Alphabet-scale (parent commands $403B rev / $132B NI 2025 + $80B AI raise Jun-2026); own operating revenue only …
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- constrained — parent-directed, cannot independently raise …
- grav
- ~$58.7B/yr GROSS Google Cloud revenue (2025) + Gemini …
Alphabet subsidiary — parent-directed, cannot independently raise; same capital pool as google (don't double-count). Distinct science-rigor …