Qualcomm
What Qualcomm is up to now
New 09-08 (15:00): THE CEILING IS $60BN, PER THE FILING. Qualcomm's own 8-K, filed today for a 09-03 event under Item 3.02, discloses the Amazon warrant as up to 25,000,000 shares at $161.26, vesting in tranches against execution of commercial arrangements, binding purchase orders and actual purchases โ capped at $60 billion in payments, with 3,750,000 shares (15%) vesting immediately on initial purchase commitments. This does not contradict the morning read that the "$4bn" is warrant value rather than a contract; it adds the number the parties themselves wrote down for how large the Amazon relationship could get. The market disagreed with the enthusiasm inside one session: the ~10% pop faded to about +2.9% by mid-afternoon. New 09-08: BACK IN THE DATA CENTRE, WITH AMAZON. Qualcomm announced a multi-generational collaboration with Amazon to build custom AI data-centre silicon, and the stock rose about 10%. โ ๏ธ The "$4 billion" figure in most headlines is the value of a warrant Qualcomm issued Amazon for up to 25 million of its own shares โ not cash consideration and not a disclosed contract size; most coverage collapses that distinction. This is the first substantial Qualcomm data-centre design win the map has recorded, ending the quiet stretch that ran from 08-05 through the summer, and it repositions Qualcomm from a handset-and-edge story into the custom-ASIC competition.
as of 2026-09-08
Snapdragon / on-device-AI edge play; mostly-free cash, attempting a datacenter return.
The metrics
- Posture med
- hedging 1 src โ
- Capital ยท available high
- ~$9.8B cash+STI (Q2 FY26, ended Mar 29 2026; cash $5.4B + ST inv $4.4B); net debt ~-$5.5B (total debt $15.3B) 1 src โ
- Capital ยท operating high
- ~$12.5B/yr FCF (TTM to Mar-2026); TTM operating cash flow $14.3B; FY2025 FCF $12.8B 1 src โ
- Capital ยท deployed high
- TTM buybacks ~$11.8B + dividends ~$3.8B (>$15B/yr returned to shareholders); capex ~$1.8B; auto/IoT + datacenter R&D 1 src โ
- Capital ยท in high
- FY2025 revenue $44.3B; TTM revenue $44.5B; TTM net income $9.9B 1 src โ
- Capital ยท out high
- buybacks ~$11.8B + dividends ~$3.8B + capex ~$1.8B โ capital-return dominates outflows (>$15B/yr) 1 src โ
- Optionality high
- mostly free but return-committed โ modest net debt, but the bulk of FCF is pre-allocated to buybacks + dividends, leaving less true dry powder than the 'mostly free' label suggests 1 src โ
- Gravity med
- GROSS โ the premium-Android ecosystem (Snapdragon; ~39% app-processor, ~50% baseband share); on-device-AI edge, plus nascent auto/IoT/PC footprints 2 src โ
Projects & threads
Full item history for Qualcomm โ
