Qualcomm
What Qualcomm is up to now
The RISC-V hedge cooled into something bigger: the same June Investor Day that buried the Tenstorrent talks (CEO denial within two weeks) launched Dragonfly — a full datacenter CPU+accelerator re-entry with Meta and Microsoft as launch customers, a $15B-by-2029 target, and the $3.9B Modular buy as an explicit anti-CUDA play (stock +15%). Alphawave closed clean in December; automotive is the quiet steady win (Toyota, VW, Bosch, Stellantis). Reports Q3 FY26 earnings 07-29 — the first test of whether Dragonfly moves guidance.
as of 2026-07-28
Sphere us
Pocket
Chips
Snapdragon / on-device-AI edge play; mostly-free cash, attempting a datacenter return.
The metrics
- Posture med
- hedging 1 src →
- Capital · available high
- ~$9.8B cash+STI (Q2 FY26, ended Mar 29 2026; cash $5.4B + ST inv $4.4B); net debt ~-$5.5B (total debt $15.3B) 1 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$12.5B/yr FCF (TTM to Mar-2026); TTM operating cash flow $14.3B; FY2025 FCF $12.8B 1 src →
- Capital · deployed high
- TTM buybacks ~$11.8B + dividends ~$3.8B (>$15B/yr returned to shareholders); capex ~$1.8B; auto/IoT + datacenter R&D 1 src →
- Capital · in high
- FY2025 revenue $44.3B; TTM revenue $44.5B; TTM net income $9.9B 1 src →
- Capital · out high
- buybacks ~$11.8B + dividends ~$3.8B + capex ~$1.8B — capital-return dominates outflows (>$15B/yr) 1 src →
- Optionality high
- mostly free but return-committed — modest net debt, but the bulk of FCF is pre-allocated to buybacks + dividends, leaving less true dry powder than the 'mostly free' label suggests 1 src →
- Gravity med
- GROSS — the premium-Android ecosystem (Snapdragon; ~39% app-processor, ~50% baseband share); on-device-AI edge, plus nascent auto/IoT/PC footprints 2 src →
Projects & threads
·
Dragonfly Return
border dispute
— open · last seen 2026-07-28
· 2 entries
·
Arm Royalty Regime
authority claim
— open · last seen 2026-07-28
· 1 entries
Vocabulary