The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← The Map

corp L1 Foundries

Samsung

What Samsung is up to now

Chasing a lead it's never had: UBS projects it overtaking SK Hynix on HBM bit-share in 2027 (41% vs 39%) — its first ever — while still stuck at Nvidia's 'paid evaluation' stage for HBM4, no confirmed volume order. Record Q2 operating profit (~$58.4B, 19x YoY) didn't stop a 6% same-day slide; capex raised 22% to $73B chasing Pyeongtaek/Giheung HBM4 capacity while Vivo/Oppo reportedly rejected its ~20% price hike. Caught in the 07-28 CXMT-triggered Seoul selloff regardless. Divisional detail 07-30.

as of 2026-07-28

Pocket Foundries

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med
hedging 2 src →
Capital · available high
~$101B group cash + ST investments (KRW 147,378,074M at 1460; ~$50B is pure cash); total debt ~$19B (KRW 28,138,794M) — deep net-cash 2 src →
Capital · operating high
~$75B/yr group operating cash flow (TTM KRW 109,008,388M at 1460; FY2025 KRW 85,315,148M ~$58B) — memory-driven 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
~$36B/yr group capex (TTM KRW 52,521,248M at 1460) — mostly memory/HBM lines; foundry share the minority; Taylor TX fab in flight; + US CHIPS ~$4.7B award (Taylor) 2 src →
Capital · in high
inflows: ~$266B/yr group revenue (TTM KRW 388,338,879M at 1460; FY2025 KRW 333,605,938M ~$229B) + US CHIPS ~$4.7B (Taylor); self-funded, Lee-family/chaebol equity control 2 src →
Capital · out high
outflows: ~$36B/yr capex + dividends; foundry runs at a loss (subsidized by memory profits); FCF TTM KRW 56,487,140M (~$39B) 1 src →
Optionality med
constrained — chaebol Lee-family voting control; HBM-vs-foundry capital tug; national champion status limits pure-profit reallocation away from foundry 1 src →
Gravity high
GROSS ~$266B/yr group revenue orbits Samsung silicon, but the FOUNDRY slice is small (~$15-20B/yr, ~7-8% share, #2, loss-making); its heavier gravity is as a DRAM/HBM maker (overlaps the … 2 src →

This week — what changed

Projects & threads

· Memory Squeeze scarcity — developing · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries

Full item history for Samsung →

Vocabulary