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The Projection

The surface is never the system.

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corp L1 Capital

SoftBank

What SoftBank is up to now

All-in and cross-collateralized: the $40B OpenAI-stake loan (21 lenders and counting), the 10GW Ohio Stargate campus Nvidia may backstop, Arm's 87.1% pledged against loans ($5B sought + a $20B margin loan, Dec-25 deadline unresolved), $2B into Intel, a renewed $10B OpenAI-collateral facility. Son has converted the empire into one correlated bet that AI credit stays open — every asset now secures another. The pieces live in four threads; softbank-all-in tracks the concentration itself.

as of 2026-07-28

Pocket Capital

Carries the $40B OpenAI bridge loan; the largest single lever into the stack. House Son the obvious next dynast.

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture high
expanding 2 src →
Capital · available high
own cash+STI ¥5.36T (~$36B, Mar-2026) — levered against ¥25.4T (~$169B) total debt; plus undrawn Vision Fund commitments 1 src →
Capital · operating high
revenue ¥7.80T (~$52B) TTM — mostly Arm + telecom operating businesses, not fund fees; net income ¥4.98T (~$33B) TTM 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
directs ~$150-160B — Vision Fund 1 ~$100B raised / ~$134B AUM (Jun-2023) + VF2 ~$30B + ~$40B OpenAI + owns 87.1% of Arm 2 src →
Capital · in high
new commitments — leading OpenAI ~$40B round (2025) + $19B Stargate; VF1 external LPs PIF $45B / Mubadala $15B / Apple (2017); VF2 largely self-funded 2 src →
Capital · out med
deployments — ~$40B OpenAI + Stargate build; historical VF deployment collapsed to ~$300M/qtr (Q4-2022) then re-accelerated into AI; recurring large buybacks 2 src →
Optionality high
free but LEVERED — Son ~71.36% voting control deploys at will, but ¥25.4T (~$169B) debt + ~1/3 of Son's personal stake pledged constrain the pile. 2 src →
Gravity med
REAL GROSS (not thin) — Arm underpins the world's mobile silicon + ~60 Vision Fund portfolio companies + Stargate/OpenAI anchoring; the largest single lever into the stack. 1 src →

This week — what changed

Projects & threads

· Stargate coalition ↳ Datacenter Sites — developing · last seen 2026-07-28 · 6 entries
· OpenAI IPO financing ↳ Lab IPO Wave — developing · last seen 2026-07-21 · 4 entries
Datacenter Sites buildout race ↳ Where the Capex Lands — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 4 entries
Lab IPO Wave financing — open · last seen 2026-07-26 · 1 entries
· Arm Royalty Regime authority claim — open · last seen 2026-07-28 · 1 entries
· Son All-In hedge — open · last seen 2026-07-27 · 1 entries

Full item history for SoftBank →

Vocabulary