The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

Summary

A 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit TSMC's Kumamoto fab on July 28, and the plant evacuated and resumed operations the same day.

Whether the Kumamoto earthquake causes any lasting output disruption despite the same-day resumption, and whether CoWoS packaging capacity keeps up with demand.

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corp L1 Foundries

TSMC

What TSMC is up to now

New 08-25 (late catch, 08-24 event): TSMC is the fab behind Xiaomi's new in-house 3nm flagship SoC. Xiaomi launched the Xring/Xuanjie O3 — 24bn+ transistors, claimed first mobile SoC past a 5-million AnTuTu score — plus a 3nm Xuanjie D100 autonomous-driving part, both on TSMC 3nm; a 6nm Xuanjie O100 AI accelerator was announced alongside. ⚠️ Worth holding precisely: a Chinese national champion reducing its dependence on foreign chip DESIGNERS by deepening its dependence on this actor's FAB. Whatever else export-control policy is doing, it is not reducing Chinese demand for leading-edge Taiwanese capacity — which is the variable `tsmc-capacity-race` actually tracks. New 08-23: CoWoS acquired its first visible challenger from inside the memory supply chain — SK hynix disclosed it is evaluating Intel's EMIB packaging alongside CoWoS for future HBM-logic integration. Nothing has moved yet; what changed is that a major HBM maker said publicly it is looking at an alternative. New 08-16: still quiet since 08-14 — no TSMC-specific development in either day's sweep beyond a passing peer-mention (semiconductor-capex chain, 08-15). Standing picture below holds. New 08-11: TSMC's board approved roughly $29.4B in new capital appropriations for advanced-node capacity and packaging (citing AI/HPC demand) and separately executed a definitive agreement with Sony to jointly build a next-generation image-sensor fab in Kumamoto, Japan (Sony contributing ~¥465B, TSMC ~¥282B; production targeted 2029, aimed at sensors for AI-driven robotics and vehicles) — coming weeks after TSMC raised its 2026 equipment-spend guidance to $60-64B. No other TSMC- specific development surfaced this week. Still holding from 08-04→08-05: the Kumamoto earthquake's final toll (38 dead, 127 injured, ~48,300 households without power) with TSMC's own fab impact limited and its 1.4nm (A14) fab now ahead of schedule (first building before April 2027, mass production mid-2028); and the CoWoS packaging capacity constraint — TSMC expanding outsourcing of the CoW front-end bonding step to OSAT partners (ASE, Amkor, SPIL) as Nvidia/ASIC demand outstrips its own capacity, with TrendForce putting Nvidia's 2026 wafer reservation at over half of total CoWoS capacity and projecting a ~20% supply-demand gap through the year. New 08-25: N2 reached commercial shipment via Apple's M6, validating 2nm yield and mass-production maturity ahead of the smartphone, HPC and custom-ASIC customers queued behind it.

as of 2026-08-26

Pocket Foundries

The chokepoint fab; raised 2026 capex to $60-64B + $100B Arizona.

The metrics — click any for its citations + threads

Posture med
expanding 3 src →
Capital · available high
~$117B cash + ST investments (~$109B-$119B across FX 29.6-32.3); TWD 3,518,013M at 30 TWD/USD; total debt ~$33B (TWD 982,447M) 2 src →
Capital · operating high
~$88B/yr operating cash flow (TTM TWD 2,634,679M at 30; FY2025 TWD 2,274,976M ~= $76B) — self-funded 1 src →
Capital · deployed high
~$50B/yr capex actually spent (TTM TWD 1,491,123M at 30) climbing toward $60-64B FY2026 guidance; AZ/JP/DE fab buildouts; + CHIPS $6.6B grant + up to $5B loans 2 src →
Capital · in high
inflows: ~$148B/yr revenue (TTM TWD 4,440,492M at 30; FY2025 TWD 3,809,054M ~$127B) + US CHIPS $6.6B grant + $5B loans; equity — self-funded, no recent raise 2 src →
Capital · out high
outflows: ~$50B/yr fab capex (rising to $60-64B) + dividends; FCF TTM TWD 1,143,557M (~$38B) after capex 1 src →
Optionality med
mixed — FCF-generative and self-funding, but a rising slice is locked to the forced AZ/JP/DE buildout ($265B US commitment; $60-64B 2026 capex) 2 src →
Gravity med
GROSS ~$148B/yr foundry revenue sits under multi-trillion downstream — ~70% global foundry share, ~90%+ of <7nm; sole/main supplier to Nvidia/Apple/AMD/Broadcom/Qualcomm — CHOKEPOINT … 3 src →

Projects & threads

· TSMC Capacity Race buildout race — open · last seen 2026-08-25 · 9 entries
· ASML — the EUV Monopoly buildout race — open · last seen 2026-08-25 · 3 entries

Full item history for TSMC →

Vocabulary