TSMC
What TSMC is up to now
Absorbed a 7.1 earthquake at Kumamoto (JASM) — evacuated and resumed same day, stock −3.6% (07-28) — while the capacity race holds; the resilience story reinforced rather than dented.
as of 2026-07-28
Pocket
Foundries
The chokepoint fab; raised 2026 capex to $60-64B + $100B Arizona.
The metrics
- Posture med
- expanding 3 src →
- Capital · available high
- ~$117B cash + ST investments (~$109B-$119B across FX 29.6-32.3); TWD 3,518,013M at 30 TWD/USD; total debt ~$33B (TWD 982,447M) 2 src →
- Capital · operating high
- ~$88B/yr operating cash flow (TTM TWD 2,634,679M at 30; FY2025 TWD 2,274,976M ~= $76B) — self-funded 1 src →
- Capital · deployed high
- ~$50B/yr capex actually spent (TTM TWD 1,491,123M at 30) climbing toward $60-64B FY2026 guidance; AZ/JP/DE fab buildouts; + CHIPS $6.6B grant + up to $5B loans 2 src →
- Capital · in high
- inflows: ~$148B/yr revenue (TTM TWD 4,440,492M at 30; FY2025 TWD 3,809,054M ~$127B) + US CHIPS $6.6B grant + $5B loans; equity — self-funded, no recent raise 2 src →
- Capital · out high
- outflows: ~$50B/yr fab capex (rising to $60-64B) + dividends; FCF TTM TWD 1,143,557M (~$38B) after capex 1 src →
- Optionality med
- mixed — FCF-generative and self-funding, but a rising slice is locked to the forced AZ/JP/DE buildout ($265B US commitment; $60-64B 2026 capex) 2 src →
- Gravity med
- GROSS ~$148B/yr foundry revenue sits under multi-trillion downstream — ~70% global foundry share, ~90%+ of <7nm; sole/main supplier to Nvidia/Apple/AMD/Broadcom/Qualcomm — CHOKEPOINT … 3 src →
This week — what changed
- A 7.1 earthquake hit TSMC's Kumamoto (JASM) fab — evacuated, resumed same day; TSMC −3.6%. (Focus Taiwan)
Projects & threads
·
TSMC Capacity Race
buildout race
— open · last seen 2026-07-28
· 2 entries
Vocabulary