What United States is up to now

New 10-01/02: A DIESEL ULTIMATUM, THEN A G7 RELEASE; A WEAK JOBS REPORT. The administration told Germany and France to release diesel stocks or face a US diesel export ban (Reuters, 10-01); on 10-02 G7 leaders agreed a 100-million-barrel IEA-coordinated release over four months, diesel front-loaded within 20 days, and Trump said Europe had agreed. September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment reached 4.2%, pulling October hike odds down. A third carrier group is heading to the Middle East. CNN and CBS report Trump is expected to name DNI Jay Clayton AI czar; the White House called that 'baseless speculation'. New 09-30/10-01: ENFORCEMENT, A HEARING AND A NEW COMMAND. The FTC confirmed its probe of frontier labs, the Senate heard the Hugging Face testimony, and Hegseth announced a four-star Autonomous Warfare Command plus a 120-day 'Project Meridian' review led by Musk, Luckey and Gingrich; no AI 'czar' has been named. Trump demanded that Powell resign and asked the attorney general to study the Fed inspector general's report, then told Time that Warsh should have voted against September's hike and that military action on Iran could resume after the midterms; Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York. Washington told France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face a US export ban (Reuters). The fiscal year opened on a stopgap that runs to 12-11, with no lapse. The 10-year Treasury closed 09-30 at 5.29% and traded near 5.33% early on 10-01, the highest since 2002. New 09-29/30: THE WHITE HOUSE TURNED THE LUNCH INTO PAPER. Trump signed an executive order on 09-29 directing agencies to say 'Super Intelligence' instead of 'AI' (the science adviser has 60 days to propose a legal definition) and, about 4pm ET, a one-page voluntary accord with six AI leaders that creates no legal force; he said he would name an AI czar within days. The New York Post reported on 09-30 that the FTC is preparing civil investigative demands for Anthropic, OpenAI and other frontier labs (unconfirmed by the agency). Abroad: a formal US reply to Iran's Hormuz plan reached Tehran through Qatar on 09-29, and CENTCOM says the last US forces left Iraq on 09-30. New 09-29 pm: AI LUNCH WITHOUT A FRAMEWORK, A 24-YEAR HIGH IN THE 30-YEAR. Trump and Speaker Johnson hosted about 20 tech CEOs at lunch on 09-29; Trump spoke of 'tremendous self-regulation' and Johnson said oversight could be voluntary and that he opposes a moratorium; no signed commitment was reported (CNBC). Trump said he will sign an order renaming AI 'super intelligence' (unsigned at about 3pm ET). The Energy Department offered to loan up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (bids due 10-06). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.612% intraday, the highest since June 2002. NY Fed President Williams said there is no need for urgency and one more hike may be appropriate late this year. New 09-26 (afternoon): TRUMP REJECTS IRAN'S PLAN ON THE RECORD. Asked by reporters at the White House on Saturday about Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said "I reject their proposal" (CNN and Al Jazeera; NBC transcribes "I rejected their deal"), that Iran wants an immediate reopening because it is "losing so badly", and that "that deal would not be acceptable". It is the first on-record US answer after the Wall Street Journal's unnamed-officials report; Iran had not answered it on the record by about 3pm ET, and Rezaei's deadline runs to 09-29. New 09-26: THE FACT SHEET LANDS; A REPORTED REJECTION OF IRAN'S PLAN. The White House published its fact sheet on Xi's visit at 11:29pm ET on 09-25: a US-China 'Super Intelligence' dialogue and incident channel, about $30bn of goods each way, at least 10 million tons of US coal a year in 2027 and 2028, and nothing on chips or export controls. The Wall Street Journal reported late Friday, citing unnamed US officials, that Trump rejected Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan and expects renewed bombing after the midterms; CNBC could not confirm it, and Washington said nothing on the record until Trump's Saturday remarks. The White House also announced a 'pocket rescission' of nearly $1bn in approved spending (Reuters counts over $800M), and the Education Department filed its court-ordered status report in the Washington school mental-health grants case on 09-25 (contents not yet public). New 09-25 (afternoon): AN APPEALS WIN OVER ANTHROPIC, NO AI CZAR YET, NO URGENCY ON CANADA. The D.C. Circuit upheld the Pentagon's second supply-chain-risk designation of Anthropic 2-1 on 09-25. Trump ruled out Bessent as his 'Super Intelligence Czar' and named no one else. Greer said agreements with China cover a subset of nonsensitive goods (details 09-28) and that there is 'no urgency' for a Canada deal, with new US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and dairy next week. Japan's finance minister said Trump raised the weak yen with Takaichi on 09-22, and Bessent called her on 09-25. The 09-24 Congressional Record shows no consent request on the Warner-Schatz AI bill. New 09-25: NO READOUT, A CEO MEETING, YIELDS AT MULTI-DECADE HIGHS. The White House issued no readout, fact sheet or joint statement from the Xi visit by the morning of 09-25; USTR Greer said more details come Monday 09-28. Trump and Speaker Johnson will meet tech CEOs on AI on 09-29. The 10-year closed 09-24 between 5.18% (Treasury's curve, highest since 2007) and about 5.22% (market close), the 30-year between 5.47% and 5.50% (highest since 2004). The Fed proposed its first stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act (Barr, 09-24). Dmitriev met Witkoff and Kushner in New York on 09-24 (CNN), and the US proposed a new Ukraine-Russia-US meeting in the UAE. Whether the Warner-Schatz consent request for mandatory NSA model testing was made or objected to is still unreported. New 09-24 afternoon: AUCTIONS, A SENATE VOTE AND A TESTING ASK. Treasury's $44bn 7-year sold at 5.085% (bid-to-cover 2.42, better than Wednesday's 5-year) and its 20- to 30-year buyback took $4.08bn of the $6bn ceiling, while the 30-year touched 5.47% (3:10pm ET); Philadelphia Fed's Paulson said 'modest further tightening may be warranted'. The Senate rejected the Iran war-powers resolution 49-50. Politico reported that the National Cyber Director's office asked OpenAI and Anthropic to hold new models from the UK AI Security Institute until the US government has tested them, and 26 attorneys general asked Congress for federal frontier-AI oversight without pre-empting state laws. Trump held about 90 minutes of talks with Xi in the Oval Office and offered only 'a great meeting'; no joint statement or White House readout had been issued by 3pm ET. New 09-24: SUMMIT WEEK, AND AN AI-CZAR DENIAL. Bessent announced the two-month truce extension on Fox on 09-23 and called reports he would be Trump's AI czar 'probably fake news'; Kratsios told the UN Security Council the US 'totally rejects' a global scheme of control over superintelligence; Trump wrote on 09-24 that superintelligence is 'a big topic' but should be left 'exactly where it is' and that the guardrail is the DOJ. The State Department told diplomats to replace 'AI' with 'super intelligence'. At home, Williams said another Fed hike by year-end is 'reasonable', the 10-year hit 5.11% on 09-23 (highest since 2007) and Maryland's governor signed a data-center review order. New 09-23 afternoon: THE 10-YEAR BREAKS 5.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 14bp to 5.116%, its highest since July 2007, on a hot flash PMI, a weak 5-year auction (5.033%, indirect bidders 54%) and Fed Governor Barr's call for further increases; FedWatch put October-hike odds near 73%. Treasury scheduled a $6bn buyback of 20- to 30-year bonds for 09-24. Trump was due to greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews before Thursday's summit, and Senate Democratic leader Schumer warned against loosening chip-export controls in the talks. New 09-22/23: UN WEEK. Trump told the General Assembly that the US rejects any 'globalist scheme' to control AI and will call it 'super intelligence', and that on Iran he faces a choice between a deal that lets Iran rebuild and 'annihilating' it, with a deal expected 'right after the election' (the transcript sets no deadline). Envoys Witkoff and Kushner held about three hours of mediated talks with Araghchi. The US signed the Greenland security pact with Denmark, signed the Graham Russia/Iran sanctions act on 09-18, and Bessent said the administration is examining a diesel export ban (Semafor separately reported him as a possible AI czar; the White House called that baseless speculation). Xi arrives 09-23 for the 09-24 summit. New 09-11: ANSWERING IRAN WITH PAPERWORK, AND DECLINING SAUDI ARABIA'S ASK. Treasury published OFAC General Licence DD in the Federal Register (91 FR 57795), revoking three standing Iran civil-aviation authorizations — 31 CFR 560.522 (payments for overflights of Iranian airspace), 31 CFR 560.529 (bunkering and emergency repairs) and Iran GL J-1 (civil aircraft on temporary sojourn) — with wind-down ending 12:01 a.m. EDT 2026-09-23. The first two are codified authorizations, not discretionary web licences. This completes the 09-08 aviation designation wave under Operation Economic Outcast: that grounded the airlines, this removes everyone else's legal basis to fly over Iran or refuel there. General Licence CC, issued 09-04, discloses that OFAC blocked Turkish investment bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two affiliates under E.O. 13902 — extending the campaign to third-country financial plumbing — with wind-down ending 09-19. Militarily the line held in the other direction: MBS called Trump twice on 09-10 asking for direct US strikes on the Houthis and was refused, while roughly 100 US personnel run intelligence and an AI-assisted targeting tool for Riyadh's own campaign. Domestically: August CPI in line at 3.4% headline, Fed hike odds ~69% into the 09-16 FOMC, and Treasury's first buyback under a tripled programme undershot its own ceiling.

as of 2026-10-02