The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← The metrics

Methodology

Capital flow

Unit
$ per state: in · out · available · operating · deployed
Role
supporting decomposition
Adopted from
capital stock vs. capital services (OECD) · PE called/invested/reserved

What it is. Capital is a flow, not a pile. Each actor’s commanded capital decomposes into five states that together tell you what the money is doing:

statequestion
inwhat’s arriving — revenue, inflows, raises
outwhat’s leaving — spend, outflows, returns
availablewhat could move now — cash, undrawn lines, dry powder
operatingwhat runs the machine — working capital, the cost base
deployedwhat’s already committed into positions

How we fill it. Per actor, from filings and disclosures where they exist, estimates flagged where they don’t — fill what’s gettable, rough is fine. The flow feeds the axes rather than competing with them: thrust is the rate at which “available” becomes “deployed” in new positions; optionality is how encumbered the whole structure is.

Why five states, not one number. A single figure hides the difference between a fortress balance sheet idling (large available, no movement) and a levered builder (thin available, torrential deployed). The five-way split is where those postures become visible before any judgment is applied.

Prior art. The stock-vs-services distinction from national capital accounting — the asset and the flow of services it yields are different measurements — plus private equity’s committed / called / invested / reserved ladder, which is the same decomposition practiced daily.

This page is the recipe; each actor's figures live on its own claims, sources attached. Recipes change only in the open — edits are logged like any board change. Back to the map.