The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← Research · Q1

Flow type · debt

$274.2B tracked across 35 claim(s) (+15 more without a settled point figure — see members) (+10 reported, not closed, $53.0B point figure, not in the total — see members)

Sum of point-figure, USD-denominated flow claims tagged Flow type · debt in the money-flow graph, leaving out claims with no realization status (reported, not closed) and guarantees (contingent).

Aggregate of 60 member claims — each member's sourced figures are below.


the working

Basis

Sum of point-figure, USD-denominated flow claims tagged Flow type · debt in the money-flow graph, leaving out claims with no realization status (reported, not closed) and guarantees (contingent).

The pieces 60

Every claim that fed this total, plus any that couldn't be summed — click a row for its own sourcing.

FlowAs ofAmount
SpaceX (Apollo-managed GPU lease financing of roughly USD 40 billion, committed October 2026) → SpaceXAI2026-10-26T00:00:00Z$40.0B
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → Meta2025-10-30T00:00:00Z$30.0B
Bytedance (syndicated loan of USD 29.6 billion, 2026-09) → Bytedance2026-09-04T00:00:00Z$29.6B
Softbank (Arm-backed margin loan raised from USD 20 billion to USD 25 billion, 2026-09) → Softbank2026-09-18T00:00:00Z$25.0B
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → Oracle2026-02-04T00:00:00Z$25.0B
Project Jupiter developer (USD 18 billion construction loan from about 20 banks, reported 2026-09) → Project Jupiter developer (Blue Owl unit)$18.0B
Crusoe Energy Systems (Abilene, TX campus JV — phase 2 expansion) (real-estate/infrastructure JV debt+equity (phase 2 expansion, unitemized split), 2025-05-21) → Crusoe2024-10-15T00:00:00Z$15.0B
Softbank (dollar-bond sale of USD 10 billion, launched 2026-09-20) → Softbank2026-09-23T00:00:00Z$11.1B
Firmus (credit facility co-led by Blackstone and Coatue, 2026) → Firmus$10.0B
Softbank (USD 10 billion loan against its OpenAI stake, reported 2026-08-28) → Softbank2026-08-28T00:00:00Z$10.0B
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → Softbank2026-09-17T00:00:00Z$6.3B
Amazon (debut sterling bond sale of GBP 4.25 billion in four tranches, 9 September 2026) → Amazon2026-09-09T00:00:00Z$5.8B
Nebius (convertible notes of USD 5.75 billion, closed August 2026) → Nebius$5.8B
CoreWeave (convertible senior notes of USD 3.7 billion due 2033, priced 2026-09-17) → CoreWeave2026-09-22T00:00:00Z$4.2B
Citigroup → Nebius2026-10-22T00:00:00Z$3.5B
Nvidia → MediaTek2026-08-31T00:00:00Z$3.5B
Nscale (pre-IPO financing of USD 3.5 billion, sought, 2026-09) → Nscale2026-09-25T00:00:00Z$3.4B
CoreWeave (delayed-draw term loan facility (disclosed at Q2 2026 earnings), 2026-08-11) → CoreWeave2026-08-11T00:00:00Z$3.1B
CoreWeave (borrower entity — CoreWeave Compute Acquisition Co. IV, LLC) (delayed-draw term loan credit-agreement amendment ("Fifth Amendment" — shape-only, individual lenders not named), 2025-09-29) → CoreWeave2025-09-29T00:00:00Z$3.0B
CoreWeave (delayed-draw term loan facility ("DDTL 5.5"), 2026-08-07) → CoreWeave2026-08-07T00:00:00Z$2.6B
SB Energy (Libra Construction Loan and Bridge Loan, USD 2.4 billion, March 2026) → SB Energy2026-03-13T00:00:00Z$2.4B
CoreWeave (private-credit debt facility (GPU-purchase/expansion financing), 2023-08-03) → CoreWeave2023-08-03T00:00:00Z$2.3B
CleanSpark (senior secured notes of USD 2.276 billion due 2031, closed 2026-09-25) → CleanSpark2026-09-25T00:00:00Z$2.3B
Nscale Ward County Borrower SPV (Ward County GPU Facility, USD 1.85 billion delayed-draw term loan, August 2026) → Nscale Ward County Borrower SPV, LLC2026-08-01T00:00:00Z$1.9B
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → CoreWeave2025-07-25T00:00:00Z$1.8B
Nscale (GPU Financing Facility, USD 1.4 billion delayed-draw term loan, February 2026) → Nscale2026-02-11T00:00:00Z$1.4B
AirTrunk TOK1 green loan of about USD 1.24 billion (March 2026) → AirTrunk2026-03-10T00:00:00Z$1.2B
Nscale NC Borrower SPV (North Carolina GPU Facility, USD 1.2 billion delayed-draw term loan, August 2026) → Nscale NC Borrower SPV, LLC2026-08-01T00:00:00Z$1.2B
SB Energy (Pelicans Jaw construction and bridge loan, USD 1,028.3 million, December 2024) → SB Energy2024-12-23T00:00:00Z$1.0B
SB Energy (SE Cosmos 8.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2031, USD 999.0 million, May 2026) → SB Energy2026-05-07T00:00:00Z$999.0M
Lambda (leveraged loan, 2026-08-12) → Lambda2026-08-12T00:00:00Z$917.0M
Nscale (Revolving Credit Facility, USD 900.0 million after upsizing, May to June 2026) → Nscale2026-05-01T00:00:00Z$900.0M
Nscale (Kvandal South DC Facility, USD 725.0 million term loan and USD 65.0 million VAT facility, July 2026) → Nscale2026-07-01T00:00:00Z$725.0M
Macquarie → Nscale2026-07-01T00:00:00Z$331.9M
Macquarie → Nscale2025-06-01T00:00:00Z$105.0M
ext (population) (lenders in the proposed chip debt package) → SpaceXAI in talksin talks, not counted
Broadcom (special-purpose-vehicle borrower, financing custom AI-chip/networking capacity leased to Anthropic) (special-purpose-vehicle senior/junior debt facility (reported "in discussions"/"in talks" — not confirmed closed as of the sources found this pass), 2026-08-21) → Broadcom in talksin talks, not counted
Z.AI (zero-coupon convertible bonds of about USD 3 billion, launched September 2026) → Zhipu Ai in talksin talks, not counted
Zankore (senior term loan facility of up to USD 3.1 billion from five banks, September 2026) → Zankore2026-09-09T00:00:00Znot summed
Oracle fiscal 2027 debt and equity raise of about USD 40 billion (expected, stated 10 June 2026) → Oracle in talks2026-06-10T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
Volta USD 5 billion debt package for a Norway data centre (JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, October 2026) → Volta in talks2026-10-13T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
US Department of Energy → Vistra2026-10-06T00:00:00Znot summed
Broadcom (special-purpose-vehicle borrower, financing custom AI-chip/networking capacity leased to Anthropic) (special-purpose-vehicle senior/junior debt facility (reported "in discussions"/"in talks" — not confirmed closed as of the sources found this pass), 2026-08-21) → Broadcom2026-08-21T00:00:00Znot summed
Broadcom (special-purpose-vehicle borrower, financing custom AI-chip/networking capacity leased to Anthropic) (special-purpose-vehicle senior/junior debt facility (reported "in discussions"/"in talks" — not confirmed closed as of the sources found this pass), 2026-08-21) → Broadcom2026-08-21T00:00:00Znot summed
Crusoe Energy Systems (Abilene, TX campus JV — phase 2 expansion) (real-estate/infrastructure JV debt+equity (phase 2 expansion, unitemized split), 2025-05-21) → Crusoe2025-05-21T00:00:00Znot summed
Richmond, Virginia 76 MW CoreWeave-leased data center (about USD 1.1 billion junk-bond sale led by Goldman Sachs, 2026-09-23) → ext (population) (data-center developer, Richmond VA 76 MW)2026-09-23T00:00:00Znot summed
Apollo Global Management → Softbank in talks2026-09-17T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
Anthropic (revolving credit facility of USD 15 billion, reported 2026-09-03) → Anthropic in talks2026-09-03T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
Broadcom → Anthropic2026-10-01T00:00:00Znot summed
CoreWeave (convertible senior notes of USD 3.7 billion due 2033, priced 2026-09-17) → CoreWeave2026-09-17T00:00:00Znot summed
Lambda (private debt of about USD 1 billion, 2026-08) → Lambda2026-08-28T00:00:00Znot summed
Softbank (dollar-bond sale of USD 10 billion, launched 2026-09-20) → Softbank2026-09-20T00:00:00Znot summed
Tesla (USD 30 billion of bank credit facilities signed 2026-09-29 (USD 20bn delayed-draw term loan, USD 8bn and USD 2bn revolvers)) → Tesla2026-09-29T00:00:00Znot summed
US Department of Energy → NextEra Energy2026-09-08T00:00:00Znot summed
Vantage Data Centers (loans of USD 2 billion sought from Pimco and PGIM, 2026-09) → Vantage Data Centers in talks2026-09-10T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → Google2026-08-12T00:00:00Znot summed
ext (population) (public bond-market capital provision) → Softbank in talks2026-08-26T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
JPMorgan Chase → Crusoe2025-01-23T00:00:00Znot summed
JPMorgan Chase → Crusoenot summed
Vantage Data Centers (Texas megacampus — site/name not independently confirmed this pass) (construction/project-finance loan (REPORTED IN TALKS — not confirmed closed as of the source date), 2025-08-22) → Vantage Data Centers in talks2025-08-22T00:00:00Zin talks, not counted
Total (settled figures only)$274.2B

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Research · Q1.