The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← Research · Q1

Flow type · guarantee

no settled point figure yet across 5 claim(s) (+5 contingent guarantee(s), $3.5B point figure, not in the total — see members)

Sum of point-figure, USD-denominated flow claims tagged Flow type · guarantee in the money-flow graph, leaving out claims with no realization status (reported, not closed) and guarantees (contingent).

Aggregate of 5 member claims — each member's sourced figures are below.


the working

Basis

Sum of point-figure, USD-denominated flow claims tagged Flow type · guarantee in the money-flow graph, leaving out claims with no realization status (reported, not closed) and guarantees (contingent).

The pieces 5

Every claim that fed this total, plus any that couldn't be summed — click a row for its own sourcing.

FlowAs ofAmount
Softbank → SB Energy guaranteeguarantee, not counted
Nvidia → Nvidia-backed compute-financing platforms (2026) guarantee2026-08-11T00:00:00Zguarantee, not counted
Nvidia → OpenAI guarantee2026-08-17T00:00:00Zguarantee, not counted
Nvidia → ext (population) (AI cloud lease counterparties) guarantee2026-08-26T00:00:00Zguarantee, not counted
Nvidia → Nscale guarantee2026-09-18T00:00:00Zguarantee, not counted
Total (settled figures only)no settled figure yet

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Research · Q1.