The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

← Research · Q1

TSMC → unnamed vendor(s) — compute silicon & systems (advanced packaging construction (CoWoS — distinct facet from tsmc/foundry-construction))

derived range — 10-20% of TSMC's $60-64B FY2026 capex guidance, bucketed with testing and mask-making, not a company-stated standalone figure (paid to unnamed vendors/contractors — this source doesn't disclose who specifically got the money)

high confidence · as of 2026-01-01 ·

derived range — 10-20% of TSMC's $60-64B FY2026 capex guidance, bucketed with testing and mask-making, not a company-stated standalone figure (paid to unnamed vendors/contractors — this source doesn't disclose who specifically got the money)

Sourced figures 1


the working

Basis

derived range — 10-20% of TSMC's $60-64B FY2026 capex guidance, bucketed with testing and mask-making, not a company-stated standalone figure (paid to unnamed vendors/contractors — this source doesn't disclose who specifically got the money)

A claim is one metric we assert about a node — the value is the summary, this page is the receipt. Sourced from kestrel; supersedes-history not yet shown. Back to Research · Q1.