CXMT's first results as a listed company beat its own prospectus by a third, and give the shortage a supply-side number from the Chinese side

What happened

🕰 CXMT reported first-half 2026 revenue of ¥150.31bn (~$22.4bn), up 873.64% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of ¥77.61bn against a ¥2.33bn loss in the same period last year. The number that matters is not the growth rate but the miss against its own guidance: CXMT's pre-IPO prospectus forecast ¥110–120bn of first-half revenue and ¥50–57bn of net profit, so the company beat the top of its own revenue range by 25% and the top of its profit range by 36%, within weeks of listing. DDR5 alone contributed ¥69.47bn, 46.3% of main-business revenue. This is the first hard Chinese-supply datapoint this thread has carried. Every prior entry here has measured the squeeze from the buy side — Nvidia's $279bn of forward purchase commitments, Micron's margin math, Apple's price negotiations — and priced Chinese memory as a policy question about whether Apple may buy it. CXMT's own book says the Chinese supply is not marginal capacity waiting on a policy decision; it is already earning at scale off the same DRAM tightness. It also reframes the apple-cxmt-senate-deadline expectation, standing passed-silent since 08-21: a supplier posting these numbers has correspondingly less need of Apple. ⚠️ Dated 08-28, inside a finalized digest-day and caught today; Bloomberg's own page returned 403 to a direct read, so this rests on SCMP and Benzinga reporting the same filed figures, which agree to the decimal. (SCMP, Benzinga)

Sources 2

SCMP scmp.com solid 0.768 generally reliable
Benzinga benzinga.com high 0.914 generally unreliable

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