Counterpoint Research: CXMT crosses 10% of global DRAM revenue share, first double-digit quarter for a Chinese DRAM maker

What happened

⚠️ OUT OF WINDOW (Counterpoint's own report is dated 2026-09-01, two days before this sweep's window opens) — flagged because it is not recorded on this thread or on CXMT IPO, it speaks directly to this thread's own watch line ("Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron expansion responses, CXMT's state-funded push... and who blinks first on capex"), and press coverage of it landed squarely inside my W1 window (TechNode published 09-04, Seoul Economic Daily's piece is timestamped 2026-09-04T07:00 KST = 2026-09-03T18:00 ET). CXMT's global DRAM market share by revenue hit 10% in Q2 2026, up from 4% a year earlier and 8% in Q1 2026 — Counterpoint's own page gives Samsung 38%, SK Hynix 25%, Micron 24%, CXMT 10%, with the top three's combined share falling from 94% (Q2 2025) to 87% (Q2 2026). Coverage frames the milestone as roughly two years ahead of Counterpoint's and UBS's own earlier projection that CXMT would not reach 10% shipment share until 2028. The mechanism named across outlets: Samsung and SK Hynix are pivoting DRAM capacity toward HBM (SK Hynix held 50% HBM share, Samsung's HBM share rose from 21% to 33% the same quarter) opening a conventional-DRAM vacancy CXMT is filling. (Counterpoint Research, TechNode, Seoul Economic Daily)

Sources 3

Counterpoint Research counterpointresearch.com unrated
TechNode technode.com practices 5/7
Seoul Economic Daily en.sedaily.com unrated

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