(overnight) — The four prints landed: rewarded for returns, punished for the bet

What happened

Microsoft: broad beat, stock +8-9% — FY2026 revenue tops $331B, Azure crosses $100B annualized, cloud growth accelerated to its fastest since 2022, Copilot paid seats hit 30M; Q4 AI-infra capex hit ~$41B, full-year capex guidance held steady. Rewarded for capex with visible cloud-revenue conversion.
Meta: revenue +28% to $60.8B, but free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M, stock fell ~10% — Q2 AI capex alone was $31.1B, and Meta raised the LOW end of full-year capex guidance. Punished for capex without a near-term return story.
Qualcomm: EPS missed by $0.02 despite a revenue beat, guided to a faster Apple-modem revenue decline, announced a Sept-1 price hike tied to memory-cost inflation. Grouped by outlets with Arm as the two "outlooks rattle markets" prints of the night (Arm's own result: beat-and-raise, stock fell further on the smartphone-royalty guidance cut — full detail in Arm Royalty Regime).
The verdict, stated plainly: hyperscaler capex with visible cloud-revenue conversion (Microsoft) got bought; capex framed as a bet without near-term return (Meta) and legacy/smartphone-exposed chip revenue (Qualcomm, Arm) got sold. The bifurcation this thread's "AI-specific vs. macro" watch predicted — not a clean turn, not a clean relief rally.
Macro crosscurrent stacked on top: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's credibility was publicly questioned after Tuesday's 9-3 split vote; oil back above $90 on the widening Iran conflict — both pulling on the same tape as the earnings verdicts.

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The Projection

(overnight) — The four prints landed: rewarded for returns, punished for the bet

What happened

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The wider story