Global Capital

TankerTrackers puts August Middle East crude exports 39% below the pre-war baseline, a 7.2 mb/d deficit down from 12.4 in May, with Iran's 1.68 mb/d expected to stay at zero

2026-09-06 · part of Red Sea Shock

What happened

Middle East crude exports in August ran 39% below the January–February baseline of 18.5 million barrels a day, a deficit of 7.2 mb/d down from 12.4 mb/d in May, according to TankerTrackers, which said on Sunday that "most may recover in the coming months" but that Iran's own 1.68 mb/d baseline "may likely remain at zero for the foreseeable future, depending on any agreement." The US military says about 90 commercial vessels have been redirected under the blockade; Iranian officials confirm no crude has passed the US warships but say up to 90 million barrels moved during the July window and that floating storage outside the line is still being sold to China at a discount — a stock Bessent put at roughly 30 million barrels remaining. With the deficit shrinking as Gulf transits recover under US escort, the supply story Tuesday's open will price is a narrowing regional gap with an Iranian zero inside it, rather than a widening one. (Al Jazeera, carrying TankerTrackers and Bessent)

Sources 1

Al Jazeera, carrying TankerTrackers and Bessent aljazeera.com solid 0.779 generally reliable

Credibility ratings combine two public datasets: Lin et al. 2023, PNAS Nexus 2(9):pgad286 (CC BY 4.0) for the domain-quality score, and Wikipedia's perennial-sources list (CC BY-SA 4.0) for the reliability tier. A rating describes an outlet's general record, never this particular article. Unrated means absent from those datasets — not a judgement.

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