Global Capital

First post-IPO earnings beat cleanly; AI capex sinks the stock anyway

2026-08-04 · part of Musk Megacap

What happened

Revenue $7.8B (+92% YoY), beat ~$6.75-6.9B consensus; EPS -$0.09, far narrower than every tracked compiler's spread. Adjusted EBITDA $3.5B (+191% YoY). Starlink led at $4.3B (only profitable segment, 1.7M net subscriber adds, ARPU down to $66 from $85 a year ago). The AI segment nearly tripled revenue to $2.6B but posted a $1.3B operating loss. Capex hit $18.4B, up 6x YoY, with $15.8B specifically AI-infrastructure — that number, not the beat, drove shares from +9.4% intraday to as much as -8.6% after-hours, directly validating the "zero-AI-value" framing this thread already carries (Morgan Stanley's 07-24 note). Management guided to a $100B annualized revenue run-rate by end of 2026. First insider-lockup tranche (up to 20% of ~911.5M restricted shares) remains on schedule 08-06. (CNBC, NPR)

Sources 2

CNBC cnbc.com high 0.85
NPR npr.org high 0.931 generally reliable

Credibility ratings combine two public datasets: Lin et al. 2023, PNAS Nexus 2(9):pgad286 (CC BY 4.0) for the domain-quality score, and Wikipedia's perennial-sources list (CC BY-SA 4.0) for the reliability tier. A rating describes an outlet's general record, never this particular article. Unrated means absent from those datasets — not a judgement.

The wider story

This event sits inside Musk Megacap, which carries how it developed before and since.

Story 13 of 19 in this thread's timeline, oldest to newest

Adjacent threads (shared entities):

· Colossus

· Grok

· Grok Harm

· Where the Capex Lands

· Power Buildout

· Datacenter Sites

· Grid & Turbines