the human toll — The Projection

What happened

The 07-28 quake below was tracked in this thread only through TSMC's fab status and Tokyo Electron's supply exposure. The human toll is recorded here, where the event is already tracked. Verified fresh against primary/consolidated sources (figures below are the FINAL tallies, updated from the developing-disaster numbers first reported 07-28, which undercounted as rescue efforts continued): 38 dead, 127 injured. The Aeon Mall in Kashima's second floor collapsed onto an estimated 3,000 shoppers, followed by a suspected gas-leak explosion — 7 of the 38 deaths and roughly 55 of the injuries were at this one site; two of the dead were store employees ordered back inside after evacuating, to retrieve cash. ~48,300 households lost power in Kumamoto Prefecture (restored by 07-31); up to 84,000 households lost water across Kumamoto and Nagasaki; ~15,000 people sheltered across 400 evacuation centers. (Wikipedia, consolidated · Al Jazeera · NPR)

Sources 3

Wikipedia, consolidated en.wikipedia.org high 0.834 generally unreliable
Al Jazeera aljazeera.com solid 0.779 generally reliable
NPR npr.org high 0.931 generally reliable

Credibility ratings combine two public datasets: Lin et al. 2023, PNAS Nexus 2(9):pgad286 (CC BY 4.0) for the domain-quality score, and Wikipedia's perennial-sources list (CC BY-SA 4.0) for the reliability tier. A rating describes an outlet's general record, never this particular article. Unrated means absent from those datasets — not a judgement.

The wider story

This event sits inside TSMC Capacity Race, which carries how it developed before and since.

Story 4 of 12 in this thread's timeline, oldest to newest

Adjacent threads (shared entities):

· ASML — the EUV Monopoly