The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI

The #2 Cashes In

Whether the ~14GW of announced OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic compute deals actually convert to shipped hardware and vested warrants on their stated H2-2026/H1-2027 timelines, or stay a backlog/announcement story — Q2 2026 earnings (reported 2026-08-04) is the first real test. Also watching: China MI325X licensing status, and whether the Oracle 50,000-GPU Q3-2026 rollout starts on schedule.

STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-08-04 LAST SEEN · 2026-09-28
AMD Nvidia OpenAI Anthropic Meta AI

2026-09-28 — AMD agrees to buy Fei-Fei Li’s World Labs for $8.2 billion

2026-09-22 — AMD crosses $1 trillion in market value, on a hyperscaler-customer product catalyst rather than its own numbers

2026-09-11 — ARK keeps trimming AMD stock just ahead of the MI450 ramp

2026-08-26 — A month after committing “tens of billions” to AMD, Anthropic signs a $45B Nvidia deal instead

2026-08-24 — AMD lays out the actual MI400/Helios numbers at Hot Chips, past the roadmap slide it showed in June

2026-08-13 — AMD prices its biggest-ever dollar bond sale to fund the buildout

Watch: Whether the ~14GW of announced OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic compute deals actually convert to shipped hardware and vested warrants on their stated H2-2026/H1-2027 timelines, or stay a backlog/announcement story — tonight’s Q2 2026 earnings (due after this crawl closed) is the first real test. Also watching: China MI325X licensing status, and whether the Oracle 50,000-GPU Q3-2026 rollout starts on schedule.

2026-08-06→07 — AMD buys a model-specific-silicon startup

2026-08-05 — Musk declares SpaceX/xAI “exclusive to Nvidia”; Wall Street re-rates AMD upward anyway

2026-08-04 — Q2 beats and raises; the stock falls anyway

← Backstory

Finding: artifacts/findings/amd-2026-08-04.md · bundle: artifacts/bundles/amd-2026-08-04/provenance.yaml

2026-08-04 — Q2 2026 earnings due tonight, pipeline still unproven in revenue

2026-07-22/23 — Advancing AI 2026: MI400/Helios hit volume production, Anthropic signs

2026-01 — China tightens: MI325X moves to case-by-case licensing

2026-02-24 — Meta signs a second 6GW deal, days after expanding with Nvidia

2025-10-27 — ZT Systems manufacturing arm divested to Sanmina, design team kept

2025-10-06 — OpenAI opens the playbook: 6GW, warrant to $600/share

2025-08 — China MI308 restrictions hit revenue, then resume under a revenue-share

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