The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI

AWS Capex

Earnings 07-30. As of 07-27: the AGI-cuts vs $200B-plan "contradiction" is coherent — retreat from frontier research, double down as the labs' landlord: $364B backlog EXCLUDING Anthropic's new $100B+/decade commitment (grew 10 days AFTER the Google TPU deal — diversification, not displacement); OpenAI $50B investment + separate $100B/8yr compute deal CONFIRMED (02-27 announcement). Rainier live (500K Trainium2, $26B IN); 1.4M Trainium deployed; Talen 1.92GW/17yr + X-Energy 5GW-by-2039. Watch 07-30: capex guide, backlog, FCF (reportedly borrowing $25B).

STATUS · DEVELOPING OPENED · 2026-07-23 LAST SEEN · 2026-10-02
Amazon AWS

Summary

Amazon's data-center buildout became a wartime target this week, even as its own AGI-team cuts raised questions about the double-down on AI infrastructure.

Whether the July 30 earnings call shows the $200 billion AWS capex plan holding steady alongside the AGI-team cuts is the open question.

2026-10-02 — Amazon adds a $1 billion community programme and a data-center code of conduct

2026-09-30 — Amazon signs a 20-year Maryland nuclear deal after pulling out of a data-center campus beside the plant

2026-09-18 — Amazon agrees to buy two Hong Kong data-centre properties for up to HK$2.4 billion

2026-09-16 — Amazon locks in up to $8bn of Generac backup generators through 2033

Logged 2026-09-20 on the cold rotation, four days after the filing.

2026-09-08 — Amazon signs a multi-generational custom-silicon deal with Qualcomm, on top of its own Trainium program

2026-08-28 — Four Swedish wind PPAs, 199MW

2026-08-26 — Two million more GPUs, announced against the demand-plateau argument

2026-08-18 — $6B more into Shreveport, a third Louisiana campus

2026-08-03 — Amazon crosses $3T market cap

2026-08-04 — Amazon prices $25B in bonds, says done issuing 2026 debt

2026-08-01 — Amazon raised FY2026 capex to ~$220B on memory costs

2026-07-30 — The test fires: AWS grows 37%, fastest in 18 quarters

2026-07-28 — Two AWS sites in Bahrain confirmed damaged by satellite imagery

2026-07-23 — Thread opened; first signal is a headcount cut, not capex

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(Finding: artifacts/findings/aws-capex-2026-07-27.md · Bundle: artifacts/bundles/aws-capex-2026-07-27/provenance.yaml)

Related threads (shared entities)

· Hyperscaler Capex
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· In-House Silicon
· Nuclear for AI
· Grid & Turbines
· Targets