CoreWeave Bet

This week's evidence

CoreWeave −30% on the month; Flow Traders signed as a customer; exec 10b5-1 selling routine, not alarming. 2026-07-28 · NEW

Shares down ~30% in a month, ~43% over the past year — the sell-off tracks a wider AI-cloud re-rating (bottom-line discipline over growth-at-all-costs) plus a Bloomberg report that Meta is building its own AI cloud-infrastructure business, a potential competitive threat. (Benzinga) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩
Flow Traders signed as a new customer — training foundation models for its AI-driven quant trading strategy on CoreWeave Cloud, chosen after a competitive eval of multi-node training performance. Continues the diversification away from the top-two-customer concentration this thread already flags, though not enough to move the stock today. (Investing.com) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩
Note, not a new signal: CEO Michael Intrator and CDO Brannin McBee have both been selling stock through July under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans (Intrator: ~370K shares 07-07/08, ~199K 07-14, ~304K 07-21; McBee: similar cadence) — routine and disclosed, not a fresh pre-earnings signal, but the run-rate is large enough to track into 08-11. (Investing.com) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩

Nasdaq debut — CoreWeave IPOs at $40/share, ~$23B initial valuation, the biggest US tech IPO since 2021. (CNBC) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

$11.9B / 5 years — OpenAI commits to CoreWeave for AI data centers and compute; OpenAI also receives $350M in CoreWeave equity as part of the deal. (CNBC/Reuters) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

All-stock acquisition announced — CoreWeave moves to buy bitcoin miner turned datacenter operator Core Scientific for ~$9B, a bid to own real estate outright instead of leasing. (CNBC) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
Shareholder revolt builds — largest holder Two Seas Capital says it will vote against, citing undervaluation; both ISS and Glass Lewis recommend against by late October. (Reuters) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
Deal rejected, 2025-10-30 — Core Scientific shareholders vote the deal down; termination announced same day. No new-capacity deal surfaces for the following ~4.5 months — the visible “plan B” (BCE Canada, Conapto Sweden, EdgeConneX Texas) doesn’t start until March 2026, and a separate Poolside Texas deal is later terminated outright. (Reuters/Bloomberg/WSJ) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

+$6.5B — OpenAI-CoreWeave deal expands; Reuters frames the quarter as CoreWeave’s active diversification push away from Microsoft concentration. Meta ($21B, through 2032, announced 2026-04-09), Anthropic, and Jane Street ($6B) follow as named customers through mid-2026. (CNBC/WSJ/Reuters) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

Q4 2025 print — backlog reported at $66.8B, up from $55.6B the prior quarter. (Yahoo Finance) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

Backlog $99.4B — as of quarter-end, naming Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI as contract counterparties. (grafa.com/TIKR/Yahoo Finance) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
Revenue $2.08B (+112% YoY), net loss $740M — loss more than doubled from Q1 2025’s $315M; stock fell 10% on the print despite the growth. Confirmed directly from CoreWeave’s own 10-Q (SEC EDGAR). (SEC EDGAR 10-Q, accession 0001769628-26-000222) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

13F shows ~94.5% increase in Nvidia’s CoreWeave position; press derives a ~11% ownership figure from the filing (not itself a primary-source-stated percentage — 13Fs disclose share count/value, not %). No SC 13D/13G exists; Nvidia’s stake is disclosed institutional-style (13F only), not as an activist position. (SEC EDGAR 13F / press) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

Nvidia CDS widens — five-plus outlets converge on Nvidia credit protection costs surging (one report: 69bp, its credit risk now exceeding Google’s) the same week bond-market anxiety over AI capex budgets breaks into mainstream coverage (CNBC, 07-24) and Moody’s separately flags Oracle and CoreWeave as AI’s “weakest credit link” (07-25) — the exact backdrop CoreWeave’s 9.75%-coupon, GPU-collateralized debt (senior notes, convertibles, an SPV junk bond) sits inside. (Crypto Briefing/CNBC/Bitget) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

Call set for 2026-08-11, 5:00 PM ET — consensus estimates run EPS −$1.27, revenue $2.56B. This is the next print for backlog conversion and debt-cost commentary. (stocktitan.net/Benzinga) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩