Whether the world's other long ends — Japan first, then the Bund, gilt and OAT curves — are now setting the terms for the US one rather than following it. The specific mechanisms to track: the BOJ's hike path (size, not just probability — the 09-18 meeting is the first test), the JGB auction tape (bid-to-cover, tails), the yen carry-trade unwind as the FX channel through which a Tokyo decision reaches US risk assets, and sovereign-spread stress in Europe (France's OATs against Bunds into the 09-30 draft Finance Bill). Track: whether the BOJ delivers a quarter-point on 09-18 and how the yen and the Nikkei-linked AI names react; whether any JGB auction tails badly enough to be cited as a driver of a US Treasury move; whether the carry unwind shows up in a US equity drawdown that the US data cannot explain; and whether Treasury's own long-end campaign is ever framed by Bessent or the market as a response to foreign selling rather than to domestic supply.
