The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

Global Capital

CXMT IPO

Up-to-$9.8B STAR Market listing (allotment 07-22, lists 07-27) funding Chinese DRAM/HBM capacity into the global squeeze. Track first-day reception, capacity-buildout plans vs. the shortage, and read-through to ai-memory-shortage and china-stack-independence.

STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-07-22 LAST SEEN · 2026-09-28
CXMT Micron

Summary

CXMT's Shanghai debut surged 466% to roughly $489 billion even as Korea's chip-heavy market crashed the next session and Washington moved toward a second national-security probe.

Whether CXMT's state-funded capacity actually eases the global memory shortage is open, given it is pricing DRAM above Samsung with no relief so far.

2026-09-28 — CXMT files a 34.9 billion yuan plan for DRAM R&D and wafer-testing capacity, mostly spent on equipment

2026-09-22 — YMTC preps a DRAM trial line as CXMT pushes into NAND — China’s two memory champions start crossing into each other’s territory

2026-09-20 — CXMT starts mass-producing a DRAM generation that closes on Samsung/SK Hynix without the EUV tools China can’t buy

2026-09-18 — CXMT preps a NAND flash R&D line at its new Beijing plant, its first move beyond DRAM

2026-09-15 — Kioxia says it is preparing a US listing of depositary shares

2026-09-08 — CXMT reported stockpiling three years of ASML DUV tools ahead of anticipated export limits

2026-09-04 — Counterpoint Research data show CXMT’s global DRAM share nearly tripled year over year

2026-08-31 — CXMT ships its first HBM3E chips, small-batch only, at ~25% yield

2026-08-29 — CXMT sues the Pentagon to get off the “Chinese military company” blacklist

2026-08-23 — YMTC’s ~$4.9bn Shanghai STAR IPO application formally accepted

2026-08-13 — CXMT overtakes Tencent to become China’s most valuable listed company, 17 days after its IPO

2026-08-09 — Apple tests CXMT memory as Beijing pivots to capital markets to fund AI champions

2026-08-07 — The tracked “coming days” administration letter still hasn’t landed; Congress’s actual letter went to Apple instead, over a week ago

2026-08-05 — CXMT reportedly refuses Apple’s push for a lower DRAM price (moderate confidence)

2026-07-30 — Alibaba’s pre-IPO stake is up ~20x

2026-07-28 (overnight) — A second probe effort, and a lithography read-through

2026-07-28 — Washington reacts, a DeepSeek-linked fund profits

2026-07-28 — Black Tuesday

2026-07-27 — The debut

2026-07-23 — Pricing finalized, extreme oversubscription

2026-07-22 — Allotment landed as staged

← Backstory (crawl 2026-07-22 → artifacts/findings/cxmt-memory-ipo-2026-07-22.md)

2026-07-16→17 — Subscription: record and caution at once

2026-07-13→15 — Pricing at ~$85B, state-built

Context — what the raise races against

Related threads (shared entities)

· Memory Squeeze
· Homegrown DUV