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The Projection

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GlobalFoundries — the Capex Reversal

⚠️ RESOLVED at the Q2 2026 print (2026-08-05, already on this thread's timeline): the Q1 capex/depreciation near-parity did NOT hold — it widened the other way, capex $411M against $307M D&A (+158% YoY capex), with adjusted free cash flow going negative (-$3M vs +$277M a year ago). Revenue $1.786B, non-IFRS GM 29.9%, a beat the market sold anyway. What is still open: whether the government's two new ~1%-scale equity stakes (quantum + photonics) keep accumulating toward an Intel-style larger position; whether Mubadala's stake keeps trimming below 73% even as its board influence deepens; and whether the ~45% stock decline since the May Mubadala sale gets explained or reversed by the Q2 print.

STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-08-04 LAST SEEN · 2026-09-21
globalfoundries Intel

2026-09-21 — GlobalFoundries and SMART Photonics launch an open-access foundry service combining silicon and indium-phosphide photonics

2026-09-17 — Marvell deal expands, and Japan floats GF as operator of a new US chip plant

2026-09-08 — $375m Commerce Department award finalised, but for quantum tech, not AI silicon

2026-08-10 — GlobalFoundries hands its factory data to Redpanda to run AI agents across every fab

2026-08-05 — Q2 2026 print: the capex reversal widens further, stock falls on margin skepticism anyway

← Backstory

2026-07-29/31 — Second CHIPS award of the year: $300M for AI-datacenter photonics, another government equity stake

2026-07-28/29 — AGM: board shrinks from 13 to 11, one director’s approval margin stands out

2026-07-17/30 — Stock falls ~45% from the Mubadala sale price, no clear single cause

2026-05-21/22 — First CHIPS award of the year: $375M quantum foundry, also structured as equity

2026-05-26 — Mubadala trims its stake to 73%, while deepening board influence

2026-05-05 — Q1 2026 filing: the capex/depreciation gap nearly closes

2026 Investor Day — first-ever dividend, formal capital-return framework

2026-03-08 — Renesas deal deepens the automotive lane

2025-06-04 — The $16B reshoring pledge (predates this crawl’s window, foundational context)

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